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Reign #FancyStats Recap: Sweet Home Ontario

Ontario's scoring chances are down + thoughts on Mersch, Dowd, Kempe, MacDermid, Ebert & Leslie

Sheng Peng

The Reign continue to roll, albeit in a less convincing fashion than previous weekends.

It was Bakersfield 3-0 on Friday, but the Reign roared back with four goals in 2:42 to complete a thrilling 5-4 comeback in their Southern California debut.

[Recap]

The following night, the Reign ground the Barracuda to chum with a relentless defensive effort, earning its third shutout in five games 3-0.

[Recap]

Some weekend player observations:

  • Once again, Michael Mersch was a monster, a rare forward who is the coach's top choice on both the power play and the penalty kill. Obviously, some of the winger's advantages at this level will be negated against superior competition, but his mature, all-out 200-foot game earmark him as ready for at least a bottom-six role in the NHL right now. If you missed it, check out this shot-blocking machine...shooter Karl Stollery looks defeated:

Mersch (10.24.15)

  • Nic Dowd is currently the Reign's only reliable two-way center; he takes the lionshare of defensive faceoffs, and along with Mersch, forms the team's top PK unit. After his more celebrated linemate, Dowd has emerged as Ontario's most-important forward. Their chemistry is a pleasure to watch:

  • Adrian Kempe had a rough Friday. Five minutes in, his tentative OZ pass from below the dots and back to the point sprung Bakersfield's Andrew Miller on a breakaway. He looked lost in coverage on the Condors' third goal. Shortly thereafter, Kempe was dropped to a checking line, and he responded by taking a careless offensive zone tripping penalty late in the game. However, he rebounded with a goal the next night, and his team-best speed is a necessary ingredient to rev Ontario's offensive attack. The 19-year-old will get another crack at a scoring line very soon.
  • Kurtis MacDermid is still learning to keep his feet moving at all times and to make the safe play over the big hit:

MacDermid (10.24.15)

  • Except for one significant puckhandling gaffe which led to a San Jose chance, on Saturday, Nick Ebert displayed the type of restraint in his sometimes reckless style that will ensure he doesn't sit. The swift, skilled blueliner was spot on about when to pinch and join the rush all night.
  • On the other hand, Zac Leslie, who was making his AHL debut, perhaps forced the play at times. Not that he was bad. On the contrary, it was a very promising AHL debut, as Leslie showed off some smooth recovery jets. But surely, some swashbuckling will be weaned out of his game over time.

All scoring chance and puck possession counts are estimated. This weekend, Ontario embarks on an exhausting back-to-back-to-back: Friday and Saturday at home against the San Antonio Rampage, and Sunday in San Jose versus the Barracuda.

Even Strength Scoring Chances

10/23/15

1 2 3 TOTAL
BAK 6 4 5 15
ONT 3 4 2 9

10/24/15

1 2 3 TOTAL
SJ 3 2 3 8
ONT 4 2 2 8

Even Strength Corsi

10/23/15

1 2 3 TOTAL
BAK 14 12 15 41
ONT 20 19 12 51

10/24/15

1 2 3 TOTAL
SJ 14 10 13 37
ONT 18 16 13 47

Individual Even Strength Corsi

10/23/15

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 15 13 53.6%
5 V. LoVerde 17 15 53.1%
7 V. Zykov 16 7 69.6%
9 A. Kempe 12 12 50.0%
11 K. Newbury 16 12 57.1%
12 J. Brodzinski 9 10 47.4%
16 S. Backman 16 14 53.3%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 4 9 30.8%
20 K. MacDermid 16 13 55.2%
21 A. Crescenzi 10 9 52.6%
23 N. Ebert 19 11 63.3%
24 R. Horvat 5 8 38.5%
25 S. Sabourin 10 7 58.8%
26 N. Dowd 22 12 64.7%
27 M. Mersch 22 11 66.7%
33 K. Raine 15 14 51.7%
39 J. Auger 12 11 52.2%
55 J. Schultz 19 17 52.8%

10/24/15

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 9 16 36.0%
5 V. LoVerde 14 15 48.3%
7 V. Zykov 12 4 75.0%
8 Z. Leslie 8 9 47.1%
9 A. Kempe 5 9 35.7%
11 K. Newbury 16 9 64.0%
12 J. Brodzinski 13 13 50.0%
16 S. Backman 14 8 63.6%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 12 11 52.2%
20 K. MacDermid 13 13 50.0%
21 A. Crescenzi 12 15 44.4%
23 N. Ebert 24 10 70.6%
24 R. Horvat 4 8 33.3%
25 S. Sabourin 5 7 41.7%
26 N. Dowd 15 6 71.4%
27 M. Mersch 24 13 64.9%
39 J. Auger 8 4 66.7%
55 J. Schultz 26 12 68.4%

Lines

10/23/15

Ontario Reign

39 Auger - 11 Newbury - 16 Backman

27 Mersch - 26 Dowd - 7 Zykov

9 Kempe - 24 Horvat - 25 Sabourin

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 12 Brodzinski

20 MacDermid - 5 Loverde

4 Gravel - 23 Ebert

55 Schultz - 33 Raine

31 Budaj

32 Emery

Bakersfield Condors

12 Hamilton – 26 Drasaitl – 11 Ford

7 Khaira – 39 Yakimov – 17 Miller

23 Christoffer – 10 McRae – 14 Platzer

19 Moroz – 27 Winquist – 22 Kessy

29 Hunt – 28 Gernat

4 Nurse – 15 Oesterle

13 LaLeggia – 6 Musil

30 Scrivens

31 Brossoit

10/24/15

Ontario Reign

27 Mersch - 11 Newbury - 16 Backman

39 Auger - 26 Dowd - 7 Zykov

9 Kempe - 24 Horvat - 25 Sabourin

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 12 Brodzinski

20 MacDermid - 5 Loverde

4 Gravel - 8 Leslie

55 Schultz - 23 Ebert

31 Budaj

32 Emery

San Jose Barracuda

38 Haley - 40 Carpenter - 55 Emanuelsson

82 Goldobin - 77 Timmins - 53 Jevpavols

52 Helewka - 86 Langlois - 84 Parkes

23 McLaren - 73 Crane - 67 Arseneau

70 Young - 74 DeMelo

45 Cundari - 63 Bergman

3 Stollery - 47 Ryan

1 Grosenick

30 Dell

Past Reign #FancyStats Recaps

Week 1: Ontario Opens on Top

Week 2: Mashing Manitoba