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Reign #FancyStats Recap: Ontario Owns California...Almost

Exclusive Corsi, scoring chance & faceoff stats as the Reign roll...except against their most hated rival. Also, GIFs/thoughts on Zykov, Kempe, Dowd, Ebert & Brodzinski.

Lee Calkins

All scoring chance, Corsi, and faceoff counts are estimated.

Ontario's schedule is packed this week, kicking off with a rare Tuesday tilt at Stockton. Then, the Heat follow the Reign to CBBA on Thursday; finally, the Charlotte Checkers visit for a home-and-home on Saturday and Sunday.

Notes

Zykov

  • Adrian Kempe has really opened my eyes this year. His speed is universally well-regarded, but his hands and shot have been better than expected. I had thought his ceiling was closer to fringe second-liner/top-notch third-liner, but there's more to him if he can put together his tantalizing tools. "If," of course, is the operative word, as careless plays like this have occurred too often this year; that said, a lot of what Kempe is currently missing can probably be taught.

  • Nic Dowd was right to be hard on himself after this series of turnovers. "First [turnover] I just lost it and tried to kick it up, maybe just skipped on me, I don’t know. The second [turnover] was just, I guess lackadaisical, went to turn back and play it over to Schultz and it got tipped off my stick." Dowd, however, made a third, perhaps more critical mistake in this sequence, as perhaps flustered, he failed to tie up Nick Ritchie's stick on the eventual goal. Ontario's assistant captain is sure to face dicier moments in the NHL and will have to keep his head.

  • One underrated aspect of the two-way center's game is his passing. Will this skill translate at a higher level? This kind of boldness will separate Dowd from other prospective bottom-six centers:

  • Aided by bereft Bakersfield backchecking and a Justin Auger pick, Nick Ebert flashed gamebreaking speed and playmaking here. As this season has progressed, he's displayed increased confidence with the puck, which is what regular partner Jeff Schultz wants from him.

  • Jonny Brodzinski's two goals in 23 games won't impress anybody, but he continues to pile up scoring chances. Here, he turns Shane O'Brien round and round...sure, it's just Shane O'Brien, but don't forget that O'Brien has played 537 NHL games. It's very much worth noting too that Mersch himself scored just six goals in his first 41 AHL contests, before notching 36 in 52 before his call-up; all this happening in just over a year and a half. Brodzinski isn't Mersch, but he's already earned enough scoring chances to suggest that his development is still very much on track.

12/12/15

In their first game without Mersch, the Reign clipped the Condors in convincing 3-1 fashion.

[Recap]

Even Strength Scoring Chances

1 2 3 TOTAL
BAK 1 1 1 3
ONT 5 7 2 15

Even Strength Corsi

1 2 3 TOTAL
BAK 16 14 11 41
ONT 25 21 8 54

Faceoffs

Name FOW FOL FO%
A. Kempe 0 1 0.0%
K. Newbury 8 9 47.1%
A. Crescenzi 8 5 61.5%
R. Horvat 4 2 66.7%
N. Dowd 9 10 47.4%
J. Auger 0 1 0.0%

Individual Even Strength Corsi

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 24 14 63.2%
5 V. LoVerde 14 12 53.8%
7 V. Zykov 19 11 63.3%
9 A. Kempe 23 9 71.9%
11 K. Newbury 14 15 48.3%
12 J. Brodzinski 21 9 70.0%
13 C. Gogol 3 7 30.0%
15 P. Bissonnette 3 5 37.5%
16 S. Backman 12 14 46.2%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 15 11 57.7%
20 K. MacDermid 14 12 53.8%
21 A. Crescenzi 16 14 53.3%
23 N. Ebert 17 16 51.5%
24 R. Horvat 3 6 33.3%
26 N. Dowd 21 5 80.8%
33 K. Raine 24 12 66.7%
39 J. Auger 10 15 40.0%
55 J. Schultz 15 16 48.4%

Lines

Ontario Reign Lines

39 Auger - 11 Newbury - 16 Backman

9 Kempe - 26 Dowd - 12 Brodzinski

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 7 Zykov

15 Bissonnette - 24 Horvat - 13 Gogol

20 MacDermid - 5 LoVerde

4 Gravel - 33 Raine

55 Schultz - 23 Ebert

31 Budaj

29 Houser

Bakersfield Condors Lines

12 Hamilton - 39 Yakimov - 33 Slepyshev

9 Pitlick - 17 Miller - 11 Ford

13 LaLeggia - 14 Platzer - 21 Chase

19 Moroz - 36 Currie - 22 Kessy

2 Reinhart - 5 Fayne

29 Hunt - 18 Simpson

15 Oesterle - 6 Musil

30 Scrivens

35 Rimmer

12/13/15

The Barracuda took a bite out of the Reign's breakout, but Ontario still busted free for a 2-1 OT victory.

[Recap]

Even Strength Scoring Chances

1 2 3 OT TOTAL
SJ 3 1 4 0 8
ONT 4 2 1 2 9

Even Strength Corsi

1 2 3 OT TOTAL
SJ 14 15 9 0 38
ONT 25 19 12 4 60

Faceoffs

Name FOW FOL FO%
A. Kempe 1 3 25.0%
K. Newbury 8 4 66.7%
J. Samuels-Thomas 1 0 100.0%
A. Crescenzi 9 9 50.0%
N. Dowd 14 10 58.3%
J. Lowry 0 1 0.0%
J. Auger 0 1 0.0%

Individual Even Strength Corsi

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 20 13 60.6%
5 V. LoVerde 23 13 63.9%
7 V. Zykov 18 7 72.0%
9 A. Kempe 24 14 63.2%
11 K. Newbury 12 5 70.6%
12 J. Brodzinski 16 18 47.1%
13 C. Gogol 8 3 72.7%
15 P. Bissonnette 11 5 68.8%
16 S. Backman 16 10 61.5%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 18 8 69.2%
20 K. MacDermid 19 14 57.6%
21 A. Crescenzi 24 15 61.5%
23 N. Ebert 21 11 65.6%
26 N. Dowd 18 17 51.4%
28 J. Lowry 4 4 50.0%
33 K. Raine 14 10 58.3%
39 J. Auger 7 8 46.7%
55 J. Schultz 19 15 55.9%

Lines

Ontario Reign Lines

39 Auger - 11 Newbury - 16 Backman

9 Kempe - 26 Dowd - 12 Brodzinski

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 7 Zykov

15 Bissonnette - 28 Lowry - 13 Gogol

20 MacDermid - 5 LoVerde

4 Gravel - 33 Raine

55 Schultz - 23 Ebert

31 Budaj

29 Houser

San Jose Barracuda Lines

89 Goodrow - 17 McCarthy - 21 Smith

82 Goldobin - 11 Lerg - 84 Parkes

38 Haley - 72 Doremus - 86 Langlois

79 Gallant - 53 Jevpalovs - 55 Emanuelsson

45 Cundari - 41 Mueller

47 Ryan - 70 Young

3 Stollery - 51 McNally

30 Dell

1 Grosenick

12/19/15

Ontario doesn't find a soft landing on Teddy Bear Toss night, as San Diego pulls it out in the shootout.

[Recap]

Even Strength Scoring Chances

1 2 3 OT TOTAL
SD 3 5 0 4 12
ONT 7 3 2 0 12

Even Strength Corsi

1 2 3 OT TOTAL
SD 9 15 6 6 36
ONT 19 21 19 0 59

Faceoffs

Name FOW FOL FO%
V. Zykov 0 1 0.0%
K. Newbury 15 4 78.9%
S. Backman 0 1 0.0%
A. Crescenzi 8 9 47.1%
R. Horvat 3 3 50.0%
N. Dowd 13 8 61.9%

Individual Even Strength Corsi

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 21 13 61.8%
5 V. LoVerde 10 9 52.6%
7 V. Zykov 28 6 82.4%
11 K. Newbury 29 6 82.9%
12 J. Brodzinski 10 13 43.5%
13 C. Gogol 7 4 63.6%
15 P. Bissonnette 8 6 57.1%
16 S. Backman 30 7 81.1%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 10 8 55.6%
20 K. MacDermid 12 5 70.6%
21 A. Crescenzi 9 10 47.4%
23 N. Ebert 35 14 71.4%
24 R. Horvat 12 6 66.7%
25 S. Sabourin 9 5 64.3%
26 N. Dowd 13 17 43.3%
33 K. Raine 14 11 56.0%
39 J. Auger 12 14 46.2%
55 J. Schultz 26 15 63.4%

Lines

Ontario Reign Lines

16 Backman - 11 Newbury - 7 Zykov

39 Auger- 26 Dowd - 12 Brodzinski

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 15 Bissonnette

13 Gogol - 24 Horvat - 25 Sabourin

20 MacDermid - 5 LoVerde

4 Gravel - 33 Raine

55 Schultz - 23 Ebert

31 Budaj

29 Houser

San Diego Gulls Lines

20 Ritchie - 18 Sgarbossa - 11 Noesen

19 Cramarossa - 17 Kerdiles - 34 Jackman

14 Bonis - 15 Mueller - 12 Friberg

16 McGrattan - 22 Bailey - 29 Ryan

23 Moore

5 S. O' Brien - 27 Theodore

24 Megna - 26 Montour

25 A. O'Brien

35 Khudobin

31 Hackett

12/20/15

Bakersfield enjoyed 11 power plays, but Ontario still managed to be the better team in a 2-1 OT thriller.

[Recap]

Even Strength Scoring Chances

1 2 3 OT TOTAL
BAK 2 1 3 0 6
ONT 1 3 6 0 10

Even Strength Corsi

1 2 3 OT TOTAL
BAK 8 14 19 0 41
ONT 12 10 25 1 48

Faceoffs

Name FOW FOL FO%
K. Newbury 3 13 18.8%
J. Brodzinski 0 1 0.0%
A. Crescenzi 16 4 80.0%
R. Horvat 2 4 33.3%
N. Dowd 11 4 73.3%

Individual Even Strength Corsi

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 21 11 65.6%
5 V. LoVerde 17 20 45.9%
7 V. Zykov 11 11 50.0%
11 K. Newbury 18 11 62.1%
12 J. Brodzinski 20 16 55.6%
15 P. Bissonnette 0 1 0.0%
16 S. Backman 18 9 66.7%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 12 14 46.2%
20 K. MacDermid 7 20 25.9%
21 A. Crescenzi 16 13 55.2%
23 N. Ebert 15 13 53.6%
24 R. Horvat 3 16 15.8%
25 S. Sabourin 3 6 33.3%
26 N. Dowd 13 8 61.9%
28 J. Lowry 7 6 53.8%
33 K. Raine 15 8 65.2%
39 J. Auger 18 10 64.3%
55 J. Schultz 20 11 64.5%

Lines

Ontario Reign Lines

16 Backman - 11 Newbury - 7 Zykov

28 Lowry - 26 Dowd - 39 Auger

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 12 Brodzinski

15 Bissonnette - 24 Horvat - 25 Sabourin

20 MacDermid - 5 LoVerde

55 Schultz - 23 Ebert

4 Gravel - 33 Raine

31 Budaj

29 Houser

Bakersfield Condors Lines

19 Moroz - 39 Yakimov - 33 Slepyshev

12 Hamilton - 17 Miller - 11 Ford

25 Roy - 14 Platzer - 21 Chase

22 Kessy - 36 Currie - 23 Christoffer

15 Oesterle - 29 Hunt

28 Gernat - 6 Musil

13 LaLeggia - 18 Simpson

30 Scrivens

35 Rimmer

12/26/15

Our Reign dears stumbled out of the holiday by dropping a 4-1 decision to bitter rivals San Diego. So far this season, Ontario has been beaten in four of five by the Gulls; they've lost just four of 19 to all other opponents.

[Box Score]

Even Strength Scoring Chances

1 2 3 TOTAL
ONT 4 4 1 9
SD 3 5 1 9

Even Strength Corsi

1 2 3 TOTAL
ONT 14 17 7 38
SD 14 13 3 30

Faceoffs

Name FOW FOL FO%
K. Newbury 8 7 53.3%
A. Crescenzi 9 7 56.3%
R. Horvat 2 3 40.0%
N. Dowd 11 8 57.9%

Individual Even Strength Corsi

Number Player CF CA CF%
4 K. Gravel 17 15 53.1%
5 V. LoVerde 13 8 61.9%
7 V. Zykov 9 6 60.0%
11 K. Newbury 11 8 57.9%
12 J. Brodzinski 5 3 62.5%
13 C. Gogol 5 5 50.0%
16 S. Backman 8 9 47.1%
18 J. Samuels-Thomas 12 10 54.5%
20 K. MacDermid 9 7 56.3%
21 A. Crescenzi 9 5 64.3%
23 N. Ebert 8 10 44.4%
24 R. Horvat 7 6 53.8%
25 S. Sabourin 5 6 45.5%
26 N. Dowd 12 11 52.2%
28 J. Lowry 9 6 60.0%
33 K. Raine 15 13 53.6%
39 J. Auger 14 11 56.0%
55 J. Schultz 14 7 66.7%

Lines

Ontario Reign Lines

16 Backman - 11 Newbury - 7 Zykov

28 Lowry - 26 Dowd - 39 Auger

18 Samuels-Thomas - 21 Crescenzi - 12 Brodzinski

13 Gogol - 24 Horvat - 25 Sabourin

20 MacDermid - 5 LoVerde

55 Schultz - 23 Ebert

4 Gravel - 33 Raine

31 Budaj

29 Houser

San Diego Gulls Lines

20 Ritchie - 18 Sgarbossa - 11 Noesen

19 Cramarossa - 17 Kerdiles - 34 Jackman

14 Bonis - 15 Mueller - 12 Friberg

16 McGrattan - 22 Bailey - 29 Ryan

5 S. O' Brien - 27 Theodore

24 Megna - 26 Montour

25 A. O'Brien - 2 Bickel

35 Khudobin

31 Hackett

Past Reign #FancyStats Recaps

Week 1: Ontario Opens on Top

Week 2: Mashing Manitoba

Week 3: Sweet Home Ontario

Week 4-5: Ontario Rolls On

Week 6: Ontario Hiccups

1st Quarter Review

Week 9: Ontario Revoir, Mike