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“The Goalie’s Gotta Make That Save”, Part 1: Late Goals

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How much will the Kings miss Jonathan Quick when clinging to late leads?

NHL: Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a cliche, but it’s one of my favorites: “The goaltender has to make that save.”

With the recent injury to Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick, the Kings are relying on two netminders who, combined, probably wouldn’t have played more than 15-20 games this season. Instead, Jeff Zatkoff and Peter Budaj have been thrown into the fire, and suffice it to say, they haven’t started quite as well as Ben Scrivens and Martin Jones did when Quick hurt his groin three years ago.

The key sticking point for both so far has been allowing goals at bad times. The times that make fans say, “The goaltender has to make that save.” There are three types of situations where you see that: near the end of the game...

... near the end of the period...

... and on easy shots.

So when the Kings have needed a save this year, they generally haven’t gotten it. How does this compare to the past three seasons? Using play-by-play data from Corsica, which is a very good site for all your fancy-stat needs, we can find out. In Part 1, we’re examining situations where the other team has pulled their goaltender.

NOTE: The below numbers may include goals which were scored when the goalie was pulled due to a delayed penalty. I removed first and second period goals to account for this, but it’s impossible to distinguish third period goals now that goalies are being pulled this early. Gee, thanks, Colorado.

You already know Budaj has allowed goals with the extra attacker on in two straight games. In 2015-16, the Kings allowed one goal with the net empty. All year. Here it is:

In contrast, the Kings scored nine empty-net goals, and seventeen other times, they held the opponent off the scoreboard when facing the extra attacker. This really looks impressive when you look at the save percentages. Jonathan Quick stopped 34 of 35 shots when the opponent had the extra attacker out there, and Jhonas Enroth stopped the only three shots he faced over two games. In 2015-16, there were 155 goals scored with an extra attacker on 1414 shots, for a leaguewide .890 save percentage. Here were the leaders in save percentage (minimum ten shots):

Goalie Saves| Shots| SV%
KARI.LEHTONEN 32 32 1.000
CAM.TALBOT 18 18 1.000
JACOB.MARKSTROM 14 14 1.000
CAREY.PRICE 10 10 1.000
JONATHAN.QUICK 35 36 0.972
ANTTI.NIEMI 24 25 0.960
MIKE.CONDON 21 22 0.955
CAM.WARD 19 20 0.950
TUUKKA.RASK 34 36 0.944
BEN.BISHOP 31 33 0.939

Having said that, 2014-15 was a different story. Quick allowed five goals after the opponent had pulled their own goaltender, two of which came in the same game against Johnny Gaudreau. Quick faced 55 shots against the extra attacker, second-most in the NHL behind Ben Bishop, so he wasn’t awful considering the circumstances. In fact, his .909 was above the leaguewide save percentage of .900. The top ten:

Goalie Saves| Shots| SV%
ANDREW.HAMMOND 21 21 1.000
JAMES.REIMER 14 14 1.000
MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 11 11 1.000
CORY.SCHNEIDER 29 30 0.967
JONATHAN.BERNIER 28 29 0.966
ANTTI.NIEMI 23 24 0.958
CAM.TALBOT 23 24 0.958
JONAS.HILLER 23 24 0.958
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 21 22 0.955
CAREY.PRICE 34 36 0.944

And in the Cup-winning season of 2013-14? Quick was, once again, above average, stopping 31 of 34 shots for a .912 save percentage. As for his backups, Jones stopped 7 of 7 and Scrivens stopped 6 of 7, though a few other guys were better even than Jones.

Goalie Saves| Shots| SV%
RYAN.MILLER 19 19 1.000
FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 13 13 1.000
AL.MONTOYA 12 12 1.000
CRAIG.ANDERSON 38 39 0.974
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 52 54 0.963
JONATHAN.BERNIER 20 21 0.952
COREY.CRAWFORD 17 18 0.944
JAROSLAV.HALAK 16 17 0.941
THOMAS.GREISS 31 33 0.939
CAREY.PRICE 26 28 0.929

This year, Peter Budaj is 0 for 2, as both Dallas and (on a 6-on-4) Vancouver scored on their first shot on goal after pulling their goaltender. This doesn’t look like a very repeatable “skill” for a goalie — Carey Price is the only netminder to rank top-ten in each of the past three seasons — but Quick was sensational under fire when protecting leads last season, and so far Budaj’s failed his first two tests. It hasn’t cost LA any points yet, but it certainly could in the next three months.