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Kings Don’t Play For Five Days, But —

Posted on by Daws Butler

— we can still win if our rivals lose. Here are 14 big games between now and then.

  • STL @ TBL (Sunday)
  • EDM @ NSH (Monday)
  • CHI @ CGY
  • COL @ PHX
  • SJS @ WAS (Tuesday)
  • STL @ FLA
  • CBJ @ PIT
  • SJS @ CBJ (Wednesday)
  • NSH @ DET
  • COL @ MIN
  • PHX @ DAL
  • OTT @ CGY
  • CHI @ EDM
  • ANA @ VAN
  • LAK @ PIT (Thursday)

Now, let’s play a thought experiment. If everything goes exactly right (from the Kings’ point of view) with the above-mentioned games, the standings on Friday morning, will look like this:

[THESE STANDINGS ARE NOT TODAY’S STANDINGS; DON’T BE FOOLED]

Q PTS W% PRJ
1 VAN 79 0.731 120
2 DET 68 0.654 107
3 DAL 67 0.620 102
4 LAK 62 0.574 94
5 NAS 63 0.573 94
6 SJS 62 0.564 92
7 ANA 62 0.564 92
8 MIN 59 0.557 91
9 PHX 61 0.545 89
10 CGY 61 0.545 89
11 CHI 58 0.537 88
12 COL 58 0.537 88
13 CBJ 57 0.528 87
14 STL 53 0.510 84
15 EDM 40 0.377 62

4th place. Very nice.

However, if everything goes exactly wrong, the Kings lose, and all our rivals win (and when they don’t win they get loser points), the standings on Friday will look like this:

Q PTS W% PRJ
1 VAN 77 0.713 117
2 DET 68 0.654 107
3 DAL 66 0.611 100
4 NAS 67 0.609 100
5 SJS 66 0.600 98
6 ANA 64 0.582 95
7 PHX 65 0.580 95
8 CGY 67 0.578 95
9 MIN 59 0.567 93
10 LAK 60 0.556 91
11 CHI 61 0.555 91
12 STL 57 0.548 90
13 CBJ 58 0.537 88
14 COL 56 0.519 85
15 EDM 38 0.365 60

Ew. 10th. And a gap starting to form between us and the 5th-8th seeds. Obviously, what happens is likely to fall within the two extremes. But still. One loss has the potential to drop you six spots.

Now, these are the real standings. As of this minute:

Q OFF. PTS W% PRJ PB to94 GR W
1 1 VAN 77 0.726 119 29 7-19-3 29 32
2 2 DET 68 0.654 107 36 12-16-2 30 29
3 3 DAL 65 0.613 101 41 13-13-3 29 26
4 4 NAS 63 0.594 97 43 14-12-3 29 22
5 5 SJS 62 0.585 96 44 15-12-2 29 25
6 6 ANA 62 0.574 94 46 15-11-2 28 25
7 9 MIN 59 0.567 93 45 16-11-3 30 26
8 8 LAK 60 0.566 93 46 16-11-2 29 23
9 7 PHX 61 0.565 93 47 15-10-3 28 24
10 11 CHI 58 0.558 91 46 17-11-2 30 24
11 10 CGY 59 0.546 90 49 16-9-3 28 20
12 12 COL 56 0.538 88 48 18-10-2 30 22
13 14 STL 53 0.530 87 47 19-10-3 32 20
14 13 CBJ 55 0.529 87 49 18-9-3 30 21
15 15 EDM 38 0.365 60 66 27-1-2 30 14

Some observations:

  • The Kings are in 8th.
  • The Kings are 3 points out of 4th.
  • The Kings are 3 or 4 points out of 12th, depending on how you look at it (PTS, points-blown, W%).
  • The Kings are on pace for 93 points.
  • According to Sportsclubstats, in the 100,000,000 simulations they’ve run of the season, 93 points is good enough for the Kings to make the playoffs 86.5% of the time.
  • At 94 points (which is where they’ll be if they win on Thursday), the odds go up to 95.7%.
  • The Ducks have played more games than everyone else. So their two point lead over the Kings is illusory.
  • At this point, the teams in the blue box (4th-12th) are still so close that anyone can still make it or blow it.
  • Anyone who slumps (worse than .534 from here on) is out. And better than .587 (if you’re the Kings) and you’re in. In that sense, everyone is master of his own fate.
  • Oh yeah. I switched the games-played column (GP) to games-remaining (GR). I kept having to make the calculation in my head anyway.

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