LA Kings Playoff Preview: Goaltending

The Los Angeles Kings began the season with a goaltending tandem of Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen. They ended the regular season with, uh, neither of those guys.

Jonathan Quick is in Vegas, after a stop in Columbus that didn’t even last long enough to fly him out there, and Cal Petersen played only ten games for the Kings this season before being unceremoniously put on waivers. He and his $5M contract have spent the bulk of the season in Ontario, where, in fairness, he put up a reasonable 9.04 save percentage and a 2.88 GAA.

The goaltender who logged the most time for the LA Kings this season was someone who had a grand total of 31 NHL games under his belt between 2014 and last season; North Pole, Alaska’s own Pheonix Copley, who played 37 games for LA this season and finished the regular season with a record of 24-6-3 and a save percentage of 9.03. He was joined after the trade deadline by Joonas Korpisalo, formerly of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who had somehow put up a .913 save percentage behind the worst defence in the league, and who improved on that number with a .921 in 11 games with the Kings, going 7-3-1 in that stretch.

So who the heck are the Kings rolling with in Game One versus the Oilers? Do the Kings go with the veteran in Korpisalo, who owns the record for most saves in an NHL game after making a casual 85 saves against Tampa Bay in the bubble playoffs of 2020, and who seems to have found a small career resurgence this year after a handful of mediocre season in Columbus? Do they go with the guy they’ve trusted all year in Copley, who lost only 9 games all season, and stole first Petersen’s job, then Quick’s?

OPPONENT

Well, let’s start by looking at the opponent. The Oilers and the Kings went 2 for 4 this season, with LA’s first victory coming on November 16, the first matchup of the season. Cal Petersen was the goalie in net for Los Angeles in that game, making 22 of 23 saves. Edmonton’s likely starting goalie for the series, rookie Stuart Skinner, made 29 of 31.

The next matchup was January 9, with LA coming out with a 6-3 victory. Pheonix Copley had arrived on the scene, making 28 of 31 saves. Skinner played just 23 minutes of that game, allowing three goals on twenty four shots before Jack Campbell entered the game.

Edmonton took both the remaining games. The first one was a 2-0 loss for the Kings, as Korpisalo made 35 of 37 saves, but it was Skinner who was the goalie of the night, with a 43 save shutout. Their regular season series finished April 5, with a 3-1 Edmonton victory. Skinner was victorious again, making 20 of 21 saves, while Copley made 30 of 32, and took home the loss.

So, in four games, Copley has played two, winning one and losing one, and Korpisalo has played one and lost. Combined, they’ve made 93 of 100 saves. Skinner, for Edmonton, has started all four games and made 113 of 119 saves. It’s a pretty tight margin, either way. All three goalies have been excellent when needed, but it’s likely Skinner that takes home the prize for best goalie in this matchup.

COPLEY vs KORPISALO

Let’s instead look at each goalie’s body of work in a little more detail. Of goalies who played at least 1500 5v5 minutes this season, Copley was 37th of 40 in xG against with 66.15. He allowed only 58 goals against in his 37 games for the Kings this season, fewer than two goals a game. Put simply, he allowed 6 goals fewer than expected based on his opponents at 5v5. If we go to all strengths, his numbers decrease a little, though he moves up the rankings to 34th in xG against (95.59) and 38th in goals allowed (92).

It’s a little tougher to quantify Korpisalo this season, as he spent much of it on a dreadful Columbus team. Despite this, he finishes the regular season with an xG against of 80.52, good for 29th of 40 goalies with over 1500 minutes. He allowed only 66 goals against, over 14 goals fewer than expected. If you add all situations, his numbers plummet. In 39 games, Korpisalo had an xG against of 114.26, 26th in the league. He also allowed 104 goals. That’s almost 50 goals allowed outside of 5v5 play. Honestly, the trick to winning this series might be avoiding going on the penalty kill.

INTANGIBLES

We all know this is probably the most important section for an NHL coach.

Korpisalo has experience. The last time he was in the playoffs, he was arguably Columbus’ best player. In 9 games in 2019, he had a .941 save percentage and 2 of his 3 wins were shutouts. He also was one of the goalies responsible for the Lake Erie Monsters’ magical Calder Cup win in 2016, going 6-2 in the 8 games he played for them. Copley has never played an NHL playoff game in his eight NHL seasons. His most recent playoff action was three games for the Hershey Bears of the AHL last season, where he recorded a .929 and went 1-2-0. However, for the bulk of this NHL season, he’s been The Guy (TM) for Los Angeles. Korpisalo is the newcomer. It should be Copley’s net to lose, in theory.

THRILLING CONCLUSION

When all is said and done, I don’t know if HC Todd McLellan knows himself who’s going to be starting on Monday night.

I’m not even sure who my choice would be. Either way, LA will be playing a very good goalie against Edmonton’s own very good goalie. I just don’t think this series will be won or lost on goaltending. It’s going to be a fun one, folks.