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Monday: The Real Standings

Posted on by Daws Butler

Q NHL PTS W% PRJ PB +/- TO 95 GR W! R:W L OT:W L SO:W L
1 1 VAN 99 0.7071 116.0 41 17 n/a 12 41 38 16 3 4 4 5
2 2 DET 90 0.6522 107.0 48 10 1-9-3 13 37 29 20 8 5 4 3
3 3 SJS 86 0.6232 102.2 52 6 3-7-3 13 34 29 22 5 4 5 4
4 4 LAK 83 0.6014 98.6 55 3 5-6-2 13 32 31 25 1 3 7 2
5 5 DAL 82 0.5942 97.4 56 2 5-5-3 13 32 27 24 5 3 5 5
6 6 CHI 82 0.5942 97.4 56 2 5-5-3 13 32 30 24 2 3 5 5
7 7 PHX 83 0.5929 97.2 57 1 5-5-2 12 32 30 23 2 7 4 4
8 9 NAS 80 0.5797 95.1 58 0 6-4-3 13 29 29 24 0 6 6 4
9 10 ANA 79 0.5725 93.9 59 -1 7-4-2 13 33 27 27 6 3 4 2
10 8 CGY 81 0.5704 93.5 61 -3 6-3-2 11 29 27 26 2 3 7 6
11 11 MIN 77 0.5580 91.5 61 -3 8-3-2 13 33 28 27 5 2 2 5
12 12 CBJ 73 0.5368 88.0 63 -5 10-2-2 14 28 24 27 4 4 4 5
13 13 STL 71 0.5145 84.4 67 -9 11-0-2 13 27 24 29 3 4 4 5
14 14 COL 60 0.4412 72.4 76 -18 n/a 14 23 18 34 5 7 3 1
15 15 EDM 55 0.3929 64.4 85 -27 n/a 12 21 19 38 2 2 2 7

Click on the headers to sort.KEY: Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong). PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. PB is points-blown. +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. TO 95 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. GR is games-remaining. W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). R, OT and SO are regulation, over-time and shoot-out,  and W and L after each indicates wins and losses for each of those three categories (e.g. R:W is regulation wins, OT:W is over-time wins, etc.).

Some observations:

  • CGY is the only difference between points-blown and official.
  • Six points (official and points-blown) separate 4th from 11th.
  • With yesterday’s win, the Kings pulled even with DAL, CHI and PHX in tie-breaker wins, one win behind ANA and MIN. This is great news.
  • LAK, DAL, CHI and PHX are all within a point of each other, and are all tied with 32 tie-breaker wins.
  • Goal-differentials for those four teams are 24, 0, 33, 2, respectively.
  • Even though the Kings have already lost the head-to-head matchup against CHI, they still need to worry about catching CHI’s goal-differential, because of the possibility of a 3 or 4 way tie.
  • Having said that, I’ve looked at the point totals for every 3 or 4 (or 5) way tie that’s possible, and the Kings lose out on any tie-breaker that involves both them and CHI, no matter who else is tied with them. That’s because of the Kings’ deadly 0-4 record against the Hawks this year.
  • The whole — massive — tie-breaker flow chart will be the topic of a post this week…as soon as I can get clarification on how the tie-breaker actually works once you drill down deep into it with more than two tied teams.
  • There is a not-insignificant chance that if the Kings end up tied with San Jose in points, they could also be tied in head-to-head, wins, and goal-differential as well. I’m not saying it’s likely (I would bet on it not happening); but it’s much closer to likely than I ever would have thought possible.
  • As I will say in the future post on this topic: if we run out of tie-breakers, then what?

Q NHL PTS W% PRJ PB +/- TO 95 GR W! R:W L OT:W L SO:W L
4 4 LAK 83 0.6014 98.6 55 3 5-6-2 13 32 31 25 1 3 7 2
5 5 DAL 82 0.5942 97.4 56 2 5-5-3 13 32 27 24 5 3 5 5
6 6 CHI 82 0.5942 97.4 56 2 5-5-3 13 32 30 24 2 3 5 5
7 7 PHX 83 0.5929 97.2 57 1 5-5-2 12 32 30 23 2 7 4 4
8 9 NAS 80 0.5797 95.1 58 0 6-4-3 13 29 29 24 0 6 6 4
9 10 ANA 79 0.5725 93.9 59 -1 7-4-2 13 33 27 27 6 3 4 2
10 8 CGY 81 0.5704 93.5 61 -3 6-3-2 11 29 27 26 2 3 7 6
11 11 MIN 77 0.5580 91.5 61 -3 8-3-2 13 33 28 27 5 2 2 5

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