My Kovalchuk Nightmare
Perfectly reasonable, sane people have offered the opinion that it's crazy, stupid, a giant time-suck and possibly immoral or evil to sit around idly freaking out over every new trade rumor. This argument is especially persuasive in light of the fact that (1) all the rumors are basically the same, and (2) in a month we'll have actual concrete information to work with. In other words, until we get the lab results back, we're basically just trawling the internet looking for proof that this or that symptom means we're dying.
I've been negotiating with the Ghost of Christmas' Future about the different possible outcomes of the Big Kovalchuk Tease, and how I will feel about each. It goes something like this:
1) No trade. Kovalchuk re-signs with Atlanta. I am relieved and happy for him and Atlanta. Likelihood of this happening, according to me: 30%
2a) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the East. The price is steep. I am happy Dean Lombardi is our GM. Likelihood: 10%
2b) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the East. The price is surprisingly low. I think Waddell is insane for not sending him West. I assume that Lombardi knows something I don't, and don't lose sleep over it. Likelihood: 5%
3a) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the West that's not us. The price is steep. I am happy Dean Lombardi is our GM. I am happy that whoever paid the heavy price will be weaker for having given up so much. I wish for their self-destruction. Likelihood: 15%
3b) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the West that's not us. The price is surprisingly low. I think Waddell blew it. I assume that Lombardi knows something I don't, and don't lose sleep over it. Maybe Kovalchuk wouldn't really fit in our system anyway. Also, I marvel at Ken Holland's genius and expect them to win the cup. Likelihood: 10%
4a) Kovalchuk is traded to the Kings as a rental. The price is low. For example, IK for Jarret Stoll and a swap of firsts. Lombardi is a genius and I am somewhat relieved but wonder who the #2 center is going to be. Brad Richardson, maybe. Likelihood: 4%
4b) Rental Kovalchuk to the Kings, price is high. Something like, IK for Stoll, Oscar Moller, Colten Teubert and a 1st. I am unhappy. I acknowledge that it's a complicated world and you have to give to get. I assume Lombardi made the best deal he could. Likelihood: 1%
5a) Kovalchuk (signed, sealed, delivered) is traded to the Kings. The price is low. For example, Kovalchuk for Jack Johnson, Richardson, Teubert and a 1st. I am happy that Lombardi made a trade that makes sense, excited to see Kovalchuk, but I'm sad about losing three guys I like. Likelihood: 10%
5b) Signed Kovalchuk to the Kings, price is high. Kovalchuk for Dustin Brown, Johnson, Thomas Hickey and Andrei Loktionov. I try to stay rational despite being depressed, especially about the amount of "character" going out the door, and also about Loktionov. I say something about how we won't know how good or bad this trade was for another four or five years. I don't really believe it. Likelihood: 15%
5c) Signed Kovalchuk to Kings, price is absurd. Kovalchuk for Wayne Simmonds, Moller, Loktionov, Vyacheslav Voynov and Jonathan Bernier. I am devastated and wish for Lombardi's resignation. Likelihood: 0%.
Which scenario is most likely?
|IK signs with Atlanta.||1|
|IK is traded to someone in the East.||34|
|IK is trade to someone in the West, not the Kings.||25|
|IK is traded to the Kings.||38|