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Points Blown Standings (41 Games)

Posted on by Robyn Pennington

The Los Angeles Kings have now reached the exact midpoint of their season and probably won’t make any significant jumps in the standings given how tight the playoff race in the Pacific Division is.

What is Points Blown?

For those of you who don’t know, Points-Blown was created by Kings fan and former Jewels From the Crown moderator Quisp as a means of better understanding the standings by controlling for differences in games played. Here’s how Quisp described the system in a post on his website, McSorley’s Stick.

Points-blown refers to the number of points a team could have earned, but did not. They are points-squandered. You get two PBs for a loss, and one PB for an OT/SOL. The lower your total, the better. Like golf. Or cholesterol.

Why is this a handy way to look at the standings, and not just a confusing pain in the ass? Well, maybe it’s not. Your mileage may vary, but for me it’s like this: W% is an excellent indicator of a team’s record, but I find it difficult to conceptualize the difference between (for example), a .575 team and a .593 team. “All we need is another 18/1000s of a [something or other] and we’ll be tied! Go team!”

But just looking at points doesn’t work either, because the schedule is wacky and teams have different numbers of games-played. Anaheim and Chicago at one point had played 5 or 6 more games than everyone else. That skews the standings. And I hate giving Anaheim any credit.

Western Conference

Team GP W L P Proj.
ANAHEIM 42 26 10 58 113.23
ARIZONA 40 16 20 36 73.8
CALGARY 41 21 17 45 90
CHICAGO 41 27 12 56 112
COLORADO 41 17 16 42 84
DALLAS 40 18 15 43 88.15
EDMONTON 41 9 23 27 54
LOS ANGELES 41 19 13 47 94
MINNESOTA 39 18 16 41 86.20
NASHVILLE 40 27 9 58 118.9
SAN JOSE 42 22 15 49 95.66
ST. LOUIS 41 25 13 53 106
VANCOUVER 39 23 13 49 103.02
WINNIPEG 41 20 14 47 94

Eastern Conference

Team GP W L P Proj.
BOSTON 42 21 15 48 93.71
BUFFALO 42 14 25 31 60.52
CAROLINA 41 13 24 30 60
COLUMBUS 38 18 17 39 84.15
DETROIT 41 22 10 53 106
FLORIDA 38 18 11 45 97.10
MONTRÉAL 40 26 12 54 110.7
NEW JERSEY 43 15 21 37 70.55
NY ISLANDERS 40 26 13 53 108.65
NY RANGERS 38 23 11 50 107.89
OTTAWA 40 16 16 40 82
PHILADELPHIA 41 16 18 39 78
PITTSBURGH 40 24 10 54 110.7
TAMPA BAY 42 26 12 56 109.33
TORONTO 41 21 17 45 90
WASHINGTON 40 21 11 50 102.5

And now for the full breakdown of LA’s points blown, now including #fancystats! As a note: Raw CF% is just the total corsi for percentages, same with fenwick for percentage. Sc.Ad CF/FF% are score adjusted corsi and fenwick for percentages – so basically, were the Kings only possessing the puck because they were behind or did they do a good job of actually maintaining their lead?

All numbers are at ES and come courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (raw CF/FF) and WAR (score adjusted CF/FF).

Kings Points Blown – Game-by-Game

Date Opponent Pts Gained Pts Blown Row Game # Proj. Raw CF% Raw FF% Sc.Ad CF% Sc.Ad FF%
Wed Oct 8, 2014 Sharks 0 2 0 1 0.00 55.45 55.84 51.60 53.42
Sat Oct 11, 2014 Coyotes 1 1 0 2 41.00 51.85 43.75 51.03 41.65
Sun Oct 12, 2014 Jets 2 0 1 3 82.00 54.02 52 60.07 56.51
Tue Oct 14, 2014 Oilers 2 0 2 4 102.50 45.78 47.06 50.38 50.24
Thu Oct 16, 2014 Blues 2 0 2 5 114.80 38.71 39.44 38.63 40.13
Sun Oct 19, 2014 Wild 2 0 3 6 123.00 34.67 32.79 39.61 36.44
Thu Oct 23, 2014 Sabres 2 0 4 7 128.86 63.3 59.77 68.03 64.60
Sun Oct 26, 2014 Blue Jackets 2 0 5 8 133.25 55.43 54.17 60.15 59.00
Tue Oct 28, 2014 Flyers 1 1 5 9 127.56 52 50.51 49.16 47.98
Thu Oct 30, 2014 Penguins 0 2 5 10 114.80 61.64 58.82 60.17 57.83
Fri Oct 31, 2014 Red Wings 0 2 5 11 104.36 41.33 42.37 42.01 42.16
Sun Nov 2, 2014 Hurricanes 0 2 5 12 95.67 47.83 47.14 45.85 45.28
Tue Nov 4, 2014 Stars 2 0 6 13 100.92 44.09 44.93 49.26 49.06
Thu Nov 6, 2014 Islanders 1 1 6 14 99.57 55.32 52.11 52.01 50.79
Sat Nov 8, 2014 Canucks 2 0 7 15 103.87 66.25 69.12 70.40 72.52
Wed Nov 12, 2014 Ducks 1 1 7 16 102.50 37.7 38.95 39.88 40.86
Thu Nov 13, 2014 Stars 0 2 7 17 96.47 52.94 55.22 48.78 50.89
Sat Nov 15, 2014 Ducks 2 0 8 18 100.22 51.04 50.67 49.71 49.72
Tue Nov 18, 2014 Panthers 2 0 9 19 103.58 48.1 49.18 49.81 50.70
Thu Nov 20, 2014 Hurricanes 2 0 10 20 106.60 55.21 53.33 61.46 59.52
Sat Nov 22, 2014 Stars 0 2 10 21 101.52 64.71 64.18 62.96 62.95
Tue Nov 25, 2014 Predators 1 1 10 22 100.64 50.63 42.11 49.49 41.82
Wed Nov 26, 2014 Wild 2 0 11 23 103.39 42.17 42.03 46.07 43.61
Sat Nov 29, 2014 Blackhawks 0 2 11 24 99.08 52.27 49.32 50.03 47.84
Tue Dec 2, 2014 Bruins 2 0 12 25 101.68 47.17 45.35 49.53 46.91
Thu Dec 4, 2014 Coyotes 2 0 13 26 104.08 58.25 56.41 63.23 61.34
Sat Dec 6, 2014 Flyers 0 2 13 27 100.22 68.25 64 64.19 60.74
Tue Dec 9, 2014 Sabres 0 2 13 28 96.64 76 72.55 75.09 71.90
Thu Dec 11, 2014 Senators 2 0 14 29 98.97 47.32 50.63 54.26 56.55
Fri Dec 12, 2014 Canadiens 0 2 14 30 95.67 62.89 57.81 62.92 57.29
Sun Dec 14, 2014 Maple Leafs 1 1 14 31 95.23 62.83 62.5 62.42 63.03
Tue Dec 16, 2014 Blues 0 2 14 32 92.25 46.77 47.83 46.67 48.83
Thu Dec 18, 2014 Blues 2 0 15 33 94.42 54 56.25 57.78 59.26
Sat Dec 20, 2014 Coyotes 2 0 16 34 96.47 53.26 54.79 57.91 58.49
Mon Dec 22, 2014 Flames 1 1 16 35 96.06 55.65 53.57 64.88 61.90
Sat Dec 27, 2014 Sharks 2 0 17 36 97.94 60.76 61.11 64.40 64.06
Mon Dec 29, 2014 Flames 0 2 17 37 95.30 67.02 67.21 60.70 62.33
Tue Dec 30, 2014 Oilers 1 1 17 38 94.95 59.05 60 58.75 62.75
Thu Jan 1, 2015 Canucks 2 0 18 39 96.72 67.78 70.15 65.03 68.34
Sat Jan 3, 2015 Predators 1 1 18 40 96.35 58.89 58.33 51.87 51.84
Thu Jan 8, 2015 Rangers 0 2 18 41 94.00 54.55 56.72 54.28 57.14

As you can see, the Kings are actually not a bad team. It’s not time to push the panic button, but rather, maintain patience and remember that they will eventually get through this gawd-awful month. It seems like they’ve really turned their (possession) game around. Just eight points in their next seven games puts them back on pace for 100 points.

Do you like the addition of corsi stats and do you want to see them in the next installment of Points Blown?

Yes, they’re great. Keep them for the next one! 17
No, I don’t care about them at all. Take them out next time. 6
I have no preference. 4
I want to see different stats (please explain in the comments). 0

Talking Points