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The Real Standings (Hawks or Stars Edition)

Posted on by Daws Butler

Q NHL PTS W% PRJ MAX LSF PB +/- >9th GR W! SS SSGR GD Qcl
1 1 VAN 115 0.7099 116.4 117 103 47 18 1 49 -1 VAN 76 115
2 2 SJS 103 0.6358 104.3 105 113 59 6 1 42 -2 SJS 33 105
3 3 DET 102 0.6296 103.3 104 102 60 5 1 42 3 LAK 19 100
4 4 NAS 99 0.6111 100.2 101 100 63 2 1 38 4 LAK 27 100
5 5 PHX 99 0.6111 100.2 101 107 63 2 1 38 -1 PHX 7 100
6 6 LAK 98 0.6049 99.2 100 101 64 1 1 36 23 100
7 7 ANA 97 0.5988 98.2 99 89 65 0 1 42 -1 1 2 95
8 8 CHI 97 0.5988 98.2 99 112 65 0 0-0-1 1 38 -8 CHI 34 95
9 9 DAL 95 0.5864 96.2 97 88 67 -2 1-0-0 1 37 5 LAK -4 95
10 10 CGY 93 0.5741 94.1 95 90 69 -4 1 32 2 LAK 14 95
11 11 STL 85 0.5247 86.0 87 90 77 -12 1 33 -8 STL 4 85
12 12 MIN 84 0.5185 85.0 86 84 78 -13 1 35 1 LAK -29 85
13 13 CBJ 81 0.5000 82.0 83 79 81 -16 1 29 3 LAK -42 80
14 14 COL 66 0.4074 66.8 68 95 96 -31 1 23 8 LAK -62 65
15 15 EDM 61 0.3765 61.8 63 62 101 -36 1 23 7 LAK -75 60

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY:

  • Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
  • NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong).
  • PRJ is projected point total for 82 games.
  • LSF is last season’s final point total.
  • MAX is maximum points possible for that team.
  • PB is points-blown.
  • +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
  • TO 97 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold.
  • GR is games-remaining.
  • W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker).
  • SS and SSGR is season series against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. that team’s points-earned) and games remaining (team name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss.
  • GD is goal-differential.
  • Qcl is clustered points, which corrects for variance in games-played and then rounds point totals to the nearest multiple of 5. The idea is to emphasize which teams are bunched together, or, to put it another way, are “more or less tied.” It may be useless or annoying. Feel free to ignore.

Observations:

  • Everything just got a whole lot simpler.
  • It’s down to Dallas or Chicago now. If Dallas wins in regulation or OT (but not in a shoot-out) and Chicago loses (but not in OT or SO) Dallas is 8th and Chicago is done.
  • If Chicago earns one point, they’re in.
  • If Dallas wins in a shoot-out, they’re out.
  • If Dallas loses or half-loses, they’re out.
  • Whoever is in, plays Vancouver.
  • As far as seeds 2-7 go, I’ll address the various match-up possibilities in the next post.

Talking Points