What do Campbell, Huet, Sopel, Ladd, Boynton, Bolland, Madden, Beach and Barker have in common?
In my previous posts outlining Chicago's clusterf*** of a cap situation for 2010-2011, I took it for granted that they had their bonus cushion situation under control. I was wrong. If the reports are true, Toews earned $1.3MM of his bonus by winning the Conn Smythe. What this means:
[we're talking about cap numbers for this season, not next season]
Chicago's cap hit 2009-2010: $60.724MM
Chicago's bonus cushion: $4.260MM
Chicago's cap hit factoring in the bonus cushion: $56.464MM
Cap space (employing bonus cushion): $336K
The bonus cushion, for those who aren't nerdy enough to dig into it, is essentially a cap-ceiling line of credit a GM has to spend during the regular season; GM is allowed to exceed the cap by the amount of the bonus cushion, provided that as soon as any potential bonuses become actual bonus payments the team immediately gets down below the cap. If at the end of the season, the team is over the cap because of bonuses paid, the amount of overage is subtracted from the team's cap ceiling the following season. So, obviously, nobody in his right mind wants to spend the bonus cushion and get caught with his pants down.
Which is what just happened.
The $1.3MM bonus puts Chicago $964,000 over the cap. So whatever the cap is next year for everyone else, it will be nearly a million dollars lower for the Hawks. That is just deadly.
This is as good a time as any to revisit the Chicago cap projections for next season. So I'm going to go back to my old figures and update them. Here we go:
We'll start with the roster as is. Neimi, Ladd, Eager and Hjalmarsson are due raises. I'm going to call it $3MM, $3MM, $1.8MM and $1.2MM. Your mileage may vary (feel free to offer better number than these in the comments; I think these are good enough ball-parks, but I will tweak under advisement). I figure Kyle Beach is ready, so let's imagine he makes the team in the fall. And then we can fill out the roster with minimum wagers. It ends up looking like this:
| 2010-11 Chicago Blackhawks | ||
| PLAYER | BONUS | CAP HIT |
| FORWARDS | ||
| Jonathan Toews | — | $6,300,000 |
| Patrick Kane | — | $6,300,000 |
| Marian Hossa | — | $5,275,000 |
| Patrick Sharp | — | $3,900,000 |
| Dave Bolland | — | $3,375,000 |
| Kris Versteeg | — | $3,083,333 |
| * Andrew Ladd | — | $3,000,000 |
| Dustin Byfuglien | — | $3,000,000 |
| * Ben Eager | — | $1,800,000 |
| Kyle Beach | ($325,000) | $1,200,000 |
| Tomas Kopecky | — | $1,200,000 |
| Troy Brouwer | — | $1,025,000 |
| * Adam Burish | — | $712,000 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Brian Campbell | — | $7,142,875 |
| Duncan Keith | — | $5,538,462 |
| Brent Seabrook | — | $3,500,000 |
| Brent Sopel | — | $2,333,333 |
| * Nick Boynton | — | $1,500,000 |
| * Niklas Hjalmarsson | — | $1,200,000 |
| Brian Connelly | ($287,500) | $875,000 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| Cristobal Huet | — | $5,625,000 |
| * Antti Niemi | — | $3,000,000 |
| * BONUS CUSHION PENALTY | — | $964,000 |
| ROSTER SIZE | 22 | |
| SALARY CAP | $56,800,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $71,849,003 | |
| BONUSES | $612,500 | |
| CAP SPACE | ($14,436,503) | |
Hmm. $14.4MM over the cap. That seems like a lot.
So, let's look at some potential strategies. Just brainstorming. 1) Hope the cap goes up by fifteen million dollars. 2) Hope for off-season career-ending injuries. 3) Hope their are GMs out there who are actually willing to do the Hawks "a solid," or else are even stupider than they are. 4) Seriously, try to get rid of some of these salaries. Toward that end...
Players they simply cannot touch:
- Toews
- Kane
- Neimi
- Keith
- Hossa
- Byfuglien
Players nobody will want to take off their hands, unless substantial incentive is included, and/or salary comes back, which of course defeats the purpose:
- Campbell
- Huet
- Sharp
- Ladd
- Seabrook
- Bolland
- Versteeg
- Sopel
- trade them, giving away other assets as incentives.
- bury them in the minors, Huet for two years, Campbell for six.
- buy them out.
The third option. Buy-outs. I ran these numbers in my last post on this topic:
Buying out Huet reduces his cap hit to $1.875MM for four years. That's a savings of $3.75MM (cap hit).[...]Brian Campbell. Buy-out reduces cap hit to $2.381MM. Savings is $4.762MM.(However, please note that the Campbell buy-out cap hit will be on the books until, wait for it......7/1/2022!That probably seems farther away than it is.
Okay, for the sake of argument (and symmetry), let's go ahead and buy out Sopel, too. And then of course you have to replace those three bodies, so we'll promote three cheap prospects. And you end up with this:
| Jonathan Toews | — | $6,300,000 |
| Patrick Kane | — | $6,300,000 |
| Marian Hossa | — | $5,275,000 |
| Patrick Sharp | — | $3,900,000 |
| Dave Bolland | — | $3,375,000 |
| Kris Versteeg | — | $3,083,333 |
| * Andrew Ladd | — | $3,000,000 |
| Dustin Byfuglien | — | $3,000,000 |
| * Ben Eager | — | $1,800,000 |
| Kyle Beach | ($325,000) | $1,200,000 |
| Tomas Kopecky | — | $1,200,000 |
| Troy Brouwer | — | $1,025,000 |
| * BONUS CUSHION PENALTY | — | $964,000 |
| * Adam Burish | — | $712,000 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Duncan Keith | — | $5,538,462 |
| Brent Seabrook | — | $3,500,000 |
| * Campbell BUYOUT | — | $2,381,000 |
| * Nick Boynton | — | $1,500,000 |
| * Niklas Hjalmarsson | — | $1,200,000 |
| * Sopel BUYOUT | — | $1,000,000 |
| Ryan Stanton | ($305,000) | $897,500 |
| Brian Connelly | ($287,500) | $875,000 |
| Simon Danis-Pepin | ($275,000) | $850,000 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| * Antti Niemi | — | $3,000,000 |
| * Huet BUYOUT | — | $1,875,000 |
| Corey Crawford | — | $800,000 |
| ROSTER SIZE | 22 | |
| SALARY CAP | $56,800,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $64,551,295 | |
| BONUSES | $1,192,500 | |
| CAP SPACE | ($6,558,795) |
Only $6.6MM over the cap. Getting there. Now we're to the meat of the dilemma. $6.6MM is three $3MM contracts (remember you have to replace each player you dump, so that's $9MM of savings minus the $2.4MM-ish in ELC or lowball veteran contracts, arriving at $6.6MM).
Three $3MM contracts. Or how about this: two $3MM contracts and also dump Boynton and also don't promote Kyle Beach, instead going minimum wage on those two slots. That will save $1-2MM. Okay, so now two contracts will do it. Select from:
- Sharp
- Ladd
- Seabrook
- Bolland
- Versteeg
| Jonathan Toews | — | $6,300,000 |
| Patrick Kane | — | $6,300,000 |
| Marian Hossa | — | $5,275,000 |
| Patrick Sharp | — | $3,900,000 |
| Kris Versteeg | — | $3,083,333 |
| Dustin Byfuglien | — | $3,000,000 |
| * Ben Eager | — | $1,800,000 |
| Tomas Kopecky | — | $1,200,000 |
| Troy Brouwer | — | $1,025,000 |
| * BONUS CUSHION PENALTY | — | $964,000 |
| Akim Aliu | ($22,500) | $845,833 |
| Ben Smith | ($220,000) | $812,500 |
| * Adam Burish | — | $712,000 |
| Brandon Bollig | — | $545,000 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Duncan Keith | — | $5,538,462 |
| Brent Seabrook | — | $3,500,000 |
| * Campbell BUYOUT | — | $2,381,000 |
| * Niklas Hjalmarsson | — | $1,200,000 |
| * Sopel BUYOUT | — | $1,000,000 |
| Ryan Stanton | ($305,000) | $897,500 |
| Brian Connelly | ($287,500) | $875,000 |
| Simon Danis-Pepin | ($275,000) | $850,000 |
| Shawn Lalonde | ($195,000) | $800,000 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| * Antti Niemi | — | $3,000,000 |
| * Huet BUYOUT | — | $1,875,000 |
| Corey Crawford | — | $800,000 |
| BUYOUTS | ||
| ROSTER SIZE | 22 | |
| SALARY CAP | $56,800,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $58,479,628 | |
| BONUSES | $1,305,000 | |
| CAP SPACE | ($374,628) |
Still $300K over the cap, but that's okay. That's within the margin of error, if you ask me. So that works. You've got seven prospects in the line-up, but it adds up. You can ice a team. You don't have to forfeit games. And all you've given away for nothing is Barker, Campbell, Ladd, Huet, Sopel, Bolland, banished Beach, and let Boynton, Madden et al walk. Good work.
And you are, by the way, still with your noses pressed right up against the cap ceiling. So, if anyone gets hurt, too f***ing bad.
But what if Chicago doesn't want to buy-out those three? Yes, it's true, they could dump Campbell, Huet and Sopel in the minors, and write off their entire cap hit. There's something inherently unethical and, well, unsportsmanlike in burying in the minors a player you yourself signed to a huge contract. I would argue that the franchise owes it to these players not to force them to play in the AHL for two years (Huet) or six years (Campbell). That's especially true in Campbell's case. Huet, I can almost see them trying it, but it's just so heartless.
But, hey, let's pretend Chicago does this. Huet, Campbell and Sopel go play in the AHL. What further sacrifice is required?
Oh, almost forgot. Next summer, Byfuglien, Seabrook, Brouwer and Crawford are due for new contracts. And you've got no UFAs to let go (oh, wait, Kopecky -- I stand corrected). So you're going to have to dump another big contract at some point either during the season or next summer at the latest. And it's the same list: Byfuglien, Seabrook, Ladd, Versteeg. Less than a year from winning the cup, and at least a third of the cast has been voted off the island.
And let's not forget: we're talking about nothing coming back but picks and prospects. For several millionaires with cup rings.
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