Without Kopitar: Carter & Stoll & Richards VS the World
Dean Lombardi spends more at center than any other position. In a nightmare scenario, how would his pivots stack up against the rest of the NHL?
(Consider this an alternate history piece with the news that Anze Kopitar's injury shouldn't be too severe.)
You know what the best/worst thing about Twitter is? The ability to share totally unsubstantiated claims with the world.
Like on Sunday, when Kopitar went down with an injury, and I suggested that a lot of teams wouldn't mind a trio of Jeff Carter/Jarret Stoll/Mike Richards up the middle.
So I decided to investigate the facts. It's a good thing that I didn't specify the exact number of "a lot of teams"!
Figuring out each team's top three centermen at any given time is difficult, but I tried my best by utilizing a combination of Daily Faceoff's latest lines and 2014-15 Average Time on Ice statistics.
Keep in mind that I'm not assessing contracts or potential at all. I'm pitting the merits of Carter/Stoll/Richards versus the rest of the league right now, based on play.
The gem of this trio is Carter—there aren't many better 1C's, and he's arguably the best second-line center in the league, depending on who you consider to be Boston's 2C (Bergeron receives slightly less ATOI but is clearly a superior player to Krejci). As for Stoll and Richards, I believe Jarret can still produce at a reasonable level and that Richie suffered from a spot of bad luck last year:
Name | Team | 2013-14 5v5 Points/60 | 2013-14 CF% RelTM | 2013-14 5v4 Points/60 (Team Ranking, F>100 mins) | 2013-14 4v5 FA60 RelTM (>100 mins) |
Carter | LAK | 1.86 | -0.2 | 3.53 (3) | 3.67 |
Stoll | LAK | 1.25 | -1.4 | 2.6 (4) | 5.71 |
Richards | LAK | 1.32 | -2.8 | 2.2 (6) | -7.65 |
In no particular order, here are the 12 center trios that I'd take over LA's group out right:
Name | Team | 2013-14 5v5 Points/60 | 2013-14 CF% RelTM | 2013-14 5v4 Points/60 (Team Ranking, F>100 mins) | 2013-14 4v5 FA60 RelTM (>100 mins) |
Getzlaf | ANA | 3.27 | -0.2 | 4.29 (2) | 3.82 |
Kesler | ANA | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.8 (4) | -7.44 |
Thompson | ANA | 0.84 | 0.9 | 1.08 |
Krejci | BOS | 2.18 | -1.9 | 5.49 (4) | |
Bergeron | BOS | 2.27 | 10.1 | 4.32 (5) | 0.28 |
Soderberg | BOS | 2.12 | -0.7 | 7.38 (1) |
Toews | CHI | 2.35 | 5.1 | 3.99 (3) | 3.83 |
Shaw | CHI | 1.77 | 1.4 | 2.33 (6) | |
Richards | CHI | 1.57 | 2.3 | 2.96 (7) |
Seguin | DAL | 2.77 | 3.7 | 4.84 (1) | |
Spezza | DAL | 2.22 | -0.2 | 5.84 (1) | |
Fiddler | DAL | 1.4 | -2.9 | 11.23 |
Zetterberg | DET | 2.45 | 1.5 | 5.5 (2) | |
Datsyuk | DET | 1.95 | 6.1 | 4.21 (4) | |
Glendening | DET | 0.7 | -5.6 | 4.4 |
Koivu | MIN | 1.62 | 9.3 | 5.09 (2) | |
Granlund | MIN | 1.79 | -2.1 | 3.89 (4) | |
Haula | MIN | 2.1 | 0.7 |
Zajac | NJD | 1.52 | 5.9 | 3.43 (5) | 8.82 |
Henrique | NJD | 1.33 | -2 | 4.46 (2) | -1.79 |
Elias | NJD | 1.71 | 0.2 | 4.38 (3) | 11.23 |
Tavares | NYI | 2.33 | 1.2 | 6.01 (1) | |
Nelson | NYI | 1.29 | 4.3 | 3.3 (4) | |
Nielsen | NYI | 1.9 | -0.4 | 4.74 (2) | -3.17 |
Giroux | PHI | 2.08 | 4.1 | 7.35 (1) | |
Couturier | PHI | 1.52 | -0.5 | 1.73 (8) | 1.91 |
Bellemare | PHI | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Crosby | PIT | 2.54 | 7.7 | 6.52 (2) | |
Malkin | PIT | 2.57 | 3.2 | 6.11 (4) | |
Sutter | PIT | 0.94 | -5 | 0.23 |
Thornton | SJS | 2.5 | 9.2 | 3.55 (4) | |
Couture | SJS | 2.12 | 0.8 | 3.47 (5) | |
Tierney | SJS | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Backes | STL | 2.02 | 1.4 | 5.05 (1) | -3.99 |
Berglund | STL | 1.56 | 1.4 | 1.51 (8) | 0.89 |
Lehtera | STL | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
And here are the 17 teams that might be delighted if they had LA's Kopi-problem:
Name | Team | 2013-14 5v5 Points/60 | 2013-14 CF% RelTM | 2013-14 5v4 Points/60 (Team Ranking, F>100 mins) | 2013-14 4v5 FA60 RelTM (>100 mins) |
Vermette | ARZ | 1.42 | -2.3 | 3.4 (5) | 10.47 |
Hanzal | ARZ | 1.69 | -0.2 | 3.45 (4) | |
Chipchura | ARZ | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Ennis | BUF | 1.34 | 0.5 | 3.71 (2) | |
Girgensons | BUF | 1.29 | 2.1 | -0.47 | |
Hodgson | BUF | 1.34 | -1.8 | 4.84 (1) |
Backlund | CGY | 1.19 | 6.8 | 4.17 (2) | -7.3 |
Monahan | CGY | 1.47 | -2.7 | 2.41 (4) | |
Stajan | CGY | 1.59 | 1.4 | 9.77 |
Staal | CAR | 1.98 | 1.6 | 2.22 (5) | |
Nash | CAR | 1.46 | 1.1 | ||
McClement | CAR | 0.55 | -4.3 | 4.25 |
Duchene | COL | 2.57 | 2.8 | 4.33 (4) | |
MacKinnon | COL | 2.07 | -1 | 5.05 (2) | |
Mitchell | COL | 1.54 | -0.8 | -0.77 |
Johansen | CBJ | 2.01 | 1.5 | 4.78 (3) | |
Anisimov | CBJ | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.56 (6) | 10.17 |
Dano | CBJ | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Nugent-Hopkins | EDM | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4.94 (1) | |
Arcobello | EDM | 1.84 | 4.3 | ||
Gordon | EDM | 0.87 | -2.6 | 6.18 |
Barkov | FLA | 1.43 | 1.6 | 2.19 (2) | |
Bjugstad | FLA | 2.01 | -0.2 | 1.17 (5) | |
MacKenzie | FLA | 1.38 | -0.1 | 2.3 |
Plekanec | MTL | 1.29 | -1.5 | 3.85 (3) | 2.11 |
Desharnais | MTL | 1.78 | 3.3 | 3.86 (2) | |
Eller | MTL | 1.16 | 2 | -15.54 |
Ribeiro | NAS | 1.55 | 3.3 | 3.15 (6) | |
Roy | NAS | 1.49 | -0.2 | 5.05 (2) | |
Gaustad | NAS | 1.11 | -3.9 | 10.15 |
St. Louis | NYR | 1.93 | -1.3 | 4.51 (4) | |
Brassard | NYR | 1.43 | 1.4 | 4.81 (2) | |
Moore | NYR | 1.1 | -2.7 | 0.78 |
Turris | OTT | 2.1 | -0.5 | 4.13 (3) | 10.75 |
Legwand | OTT | 1.53 | 0.4 | 4.35 (3) | |
Zibanejad | OTT | 1.69 | 2.1 | 3.27 (5) |
Filppula | TBL | 1.76 | 1.5 | 4.34 (1) | |
Johnson | TBL | 1.74 | 1.2 | 3.05 (6) | 1.82 |
Boyle | TBL | 0.95 | 0 | 10.93 |
Bozak | TOR | 2.32 | 0.1 | 2.82 (6) | |
Kadri | TOR | 1.71 | 3.1 | 5.71 (1) | |
Santorelli | TOR | 1.91 | -0.8 |
Sedin | VAN | 1.85 | 4.4 | 4.11 (1) | |
Bonino | VAN | 1.93 | 0.1 | 4.38 (1) | 2.38 |
Richardson | VAN | 1.13 | -3.7 |
Backstrom | WAS | 1.46 | 2.3 | 8.91 (1) | |
Burakovsky | WAS | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Kuznetsov | WAS | 1.78 | -4.9 |
Little | WPG | 2.09 | 4.6 | 3.46 (2) | 3.39 |
Scheifele | WPG | 1.67 | -2.4 | 1.98 (5) | |
Lowry | WPG | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
What do you think? I will save any specific explanations for the Comments section, but in my book, featuring a dominating 1C (Giroux) or great duo (Thornton/Couture) offset a relative lack of depth (what's a Tierney or Bellemare?).
While the Tinseltown trio's underlying numbers don't look great compared to their peers, there are some extenuating circumstances: The Kings, by design, score less than say, Anaheim. Also, it's slightly harder to produce a positive CF % RelTM on a very strong possession squad.
To their credit, Carter/Stoll/Richards is the only trio besides New Jersey's that actively participates on both sides of special teams. Richards's low 4v5 FA60 RelTM suggests top-notch penalty-killing ability. It's telling that every significant Dean Lombardi centerman is (or was) a model two-way pivot.
Overall, I still think that the Kings would be OKAY without Kopitar for an extended period of time. OKAY meaning that I'd still expect a playoff spot, comfortably, with decent team health otherwise. Carter is very good. However, the center position in all would cease to be a team strength and become about league-average.
Of course, Los Angeles is still deep at the wings, defense, and yes, in goal (at least so far this season). All that would help cover up a softer center.
Anyway, that's the regular season. If Kopitar were to miss the playoffs once again, who's up for some McTanking?
All stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis and Puckalytics.
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