(Consider this an alternate history piece with the news that Anze Kopitar’s injury shouldn’t be too severe.)
You know what the best/worst thing about Twitter is? The ability to share totally unsubstantiated claims with the world.
Like on Sunday, when Kopitar went down with an injury, and I suggested that a lot of teams wouldn’t mind a trio of Jeff Carter/Jarret Stoll/Mike Richards up the middle.
So I decided to investigate the facts. It’s a good thing that I didn’t specify the exact number of “a lot of teams”!
Figuring out each team’s top three centermen at any given time is difficult, but I tried my best by utilizing a combination of Daily Faceoff‘s latest lines and 2014-15 Average Time on Ice statistics.
Keep in mind that I’m not assessing contracts or potential at all. I’m pitting the merits of Carter/Stoll/Richards versus the rest of the league right now, based on play.
The gem of this trio is Carter—there aren’t many better 1C’s, and he’s arguably the best second-line center in the league, depending on who you consider to be Boston’s 2C (Bergeron receives slightly less ATOI but is clearly a superior player to Krejci). As for Stoll and Richards, I believe Jarret can still produce at a reasonable level and that Richie suffered from a spot of bad luck last year:
| Name | Team |
2013-14
5v5 Points/60
|
2013-14
CF% RelTM
|
2013-14
5v4 Points/60 (Team Ranking, F>100 mins)
|
2013-14
4v5 FA60 RelTM
(>100 mins)
|
| Carter | LAK | 1.86 | -0.2 | 3.53 (3) | 3.67 |
| Stoll | LAK | 1.25 | -1.4 | 2.6 (4) | 5.71 |
| Richards | LAK | 1.32 | -2.8 | 2.2 (6) | -7.65 |
In no particular order, here are the 12 center trios that I’d take over LA’s group out right:
| Name | Team |
2013-14
5v5 Points/60
|
2013-14
CF% RelTM
|
2013-14
5v4 Points/60 (Team Ranking, F>100 mins)
|
2013-14
4v5 FA60 RelTM
(>100 mins)
|
| Getzlaf | ANA | 3.27 | -0.2 | 4.29 (2) | 3.82 |
| Kesler | ANA | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.8 (4) | -7.44 |
| Thompson | ANA | 0.84 | 0.9 | 1.08 |
| Krejci | BOS | 2.18 | -1.9 | 5.49 (4) | |
| Bergeron | BOS | 2.27 | 10.1 | 4.32 (5) | 0.28 |
| Soderberg | BOS | 2.12 | -0.7 | 7.38 (1) |
| Toews | CHI | 2.35 | 5.1 | 3.99 (3) | 3.83 |
| Shaw | CHI | 1.77 | 1.4 | 2.33 (6) | |
| Richards | CHI | 1.57 | 2.3 | 2.96 (7) |
| Seguin | DAL | 2.77 | 3.7 | 4.84 (1) | |
| Spezza | DAL | 2.22 | -0.2 | 5.84 (1) | |
| Fiddler | DAL | 1.4 | -2.9 | 11.23 |
| Zetterberg | DET | 2.45 | 1.5 | 5.5 (2) | |
| Datsyuk | DET | 1.95 | 6.1 | 4.21 (4) | |
| Glendening | DET | 0.7 | -5.6 | 4.4 |
| Koivu | MIN | 1.62 | 9.3 | 5.09 (2) | |
| Granlund | MIN | 1.79 | -2.1 | 3.89 (4) | |
| Haula | MIN | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Zajac | NJD | 1.52 | 5.9 | 3.43 (5) | 8.82 |
| Henrique | NJD | 1.33 | -2 | 4.46 (2) | -1.79 |
| Elias | NJD | 1.71 | 0.2 | 4.38 (3) | 11.23 |
| Tavares | NYI | 2.33 | 1.2 | 6.01 (1) | |
| Nelson | NYI | 1.29 | 4.3 | 3.3 (4) | |
| Nielsen | NYI | 1.9 | -0.4 | 4.74 (2) | -3.17 |
| Giroux | PHI | 2.08 | 4.1 | 7.35 (1) | |
| Couturier | PHI | 1.52 | -0.5 | 1.73 (8) | 1.91 |
| Bellemare | PHI | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Crosby | PIT | 2.54 | 7.7 | 6.52 (2) | |
| Malkin | PIT | 2.57 | 3.2 | 6.11 (4) | |
| Sutter | PIT | 0.94 | -5 | 0.23 |
| Thornton | SJS | 2.5 | 9.2 | 3.55 (4) | |
| Couture | SJS | 2.12 | 0.8 | 3.47 (5) | |
| Tierney | SJS | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Backes | STL | 2.02 | 1.4 | 5.05 (1) | -3.99 |
| Berglund | STL | 1.56 | 1.4 | 1.51 (8) | 0.89 |
| Lehtera | STL | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
And here are the 17 teams that might be delighted if they had LA’s Kopi-problem:
| Name | Team |
2013-14
5v5 Points/60
|
2013-14
CF% RelTM
|
2013-14
5v4 Points/60 (Team Ranking, F>100 mins)
|
2013-14
4v5 FA60 RelTM
(>100 mins)
|
| Vermette | ARZ | 1.42 | -2.3 | 3.4 (5) | 10.47 |
| Hanzal | ARZ | 1.69 | -0.2 | 3.45 (4) | |
| Chipchura | ARZ | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Ennis | BUF | 1.34 | 0.5 | 3.71 (2) | |
| Girgensons | BUF | 1.29 | 2.1 | -0.47 | |
| Hodgson | BUF | 1.34 | -1.8 | 4.84 (1) |
| Backlund | CGY | 1.19 | 6.8 | 4.17 (2) | -7.3 |
| Monahan | CGY | 1.47 | -2.7 | 2.41 (4) | |
| Stajan | CGY | 1.59 | 1.4 | 9.77 |
| Staal | CAR | 1.98 | 1.6 | 2.22 (5) | |
| Nash | CAR | 1.46 | 1.1 | ||
| McClement | CAR | 0.55 | -4.3 | 4.25 |
| Duchene | COL | 2.57 | 2.8 | 4.33 (4) | |
| MacKinnon | COL | 2.07 | -1 | 5.05 (2) | |
| Mitchell | COL | 1.54 | -0.8 | -0.77 |
| Johansen | CBJ | 2.01 | 1.5 | 4.78 (3) | |
| Anisimov | CBJ | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.56 (6) | 10.17 |
| Dano | CBJ | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Nugent-Hopkins | EDM | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4.94 (1) | |
| Arcobello | EDM | 1.84 | 4.3 | ||
| Gordon | EDM | 0.87 | -2.6 | 6.18 |
| Barkov | FLA | 1.43 | 1.6 | 2.19 (2) | |
| Bjugstad | FLA | 2.01 | -0.2 | 1.17 (5) | |
| MacKenzie | FLA | 1.38 | -0.1 | 2.3 |
| Plekanec | MTL | 1.29 | -1.5 | 3.85 (3) | 2.11 |
| Desharnais | MTL | 1.78 | 3.3 | 3.86 (2) | |
| Eller | MTL | 1.16 | 2 | -15.54 |
| Ribeiro | NAS | 1.55 | 3.3 | 3.15 (6) | |
| Roy | NAS | 1.49 | -0.2 | 5.05 (2) | |
| Gaustad | NAS | 1.11 | -3.9 | 10.15 |
| St. Louis | NYR | 1.93 | -1.3 | 4.51 (4) | |
| Brassard | NYR | 1.43 | 1.4 | 4.81 (2) | |
| Moore | NYR | 1.1 | -2.7 | 0.78 |
| Turris | OTT | 2.1 | -0.5 | 4.13 (3) | 10.75 |
| Legwand | OTT | 1.53 | 0.4 | 4.35 (3) | |
| Zibanejad | OTT | 1.69 | 2.1 | 3.27 (5) |
| Filppula | TBL | 1.76 | 1.5 | 4.34 (1) | |
| Johnson | TBL | 1.74 | 1.2 | 3.05 (6) | 1.82 |
| Boyle | TBL | 0.95 | 0 | 10.93 |
| Bozak | TOR | 2.32 | 0.1 | 2.82 (6) | |
| Kadri | TOR | 1.71 | 3.1 | 5.71 (1) | |
| Santorelli | TOR | 1.91 | -0.8 |
| Sedin | VAN | 1.85 | 4.4 | 4.11 (1) | |
| Bonino | VAN | 1.93 | 0.1 | 4.38 (1) | 2.38 |
| Richardson | VAN | 1.13 | -3.7 |
| Backstrom | WAS | 1.46 | 2.3 | 8.91 (1) | |
| Burakovsky | WAS | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Kuznetsov | WAS | 1.78 | -4.9 |
| Little | WPG | 2.09 | 4.6 | 3.46 (2) | 3.39 |
| Scheifele | WPG | 1.67 | -2.4 | 1.98 (5) | |
| Lowry | WPG | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
What do you think? I will save any specific explanations for the Comments section, but in my book, featuring a dominating 1C (Giroux) or great duo (Thornton/Couture) offset a relative lack of depth (what’s a Tierney or Bellemare?).
While the Tinseltown trio’s underlying numbers don’t look great compared to their peers, there are some extenuating circumstances: The Kings, by design, score less than say, Anaheim. Also, it’s slightly harder to produce a positive CF % RelTM on a very strong possession squad.
To their credit, Carter/Stoll/Richards is the only trio besides New Jersey’s that actively participates on both sides of special teams. Richards’s low 4v5 FA60 RelTM suggests top-notch penalty-killing ability. It’s telling that every significant Dean Lombardi centerman is (or was) a model two-way pivot.
Overall, I still think that the Kings would be OKAY without Kopitar for an extended period of time. OKAY meaning that I’d still expect a playoff spot, comfortably, with decent team health otherwise. Carter is very good. However, the center position in all would cease to be a team strength and become about league-average.
Of course, Los Angeles is still deep at the wings, defense, and yes, in goal (at least so far this season). All that would help cover up a softer center.
Anyway, that’s the regular season. If Kopitar were to miss the playoffs once again, who’s up for some McTanking?
All stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis and Puckalytics.