New year, same story, still hoping for a different ending.
Deeply concerning defensive lapses aside to the second worst team in the NHL this year and nearly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, the Los Angeles Kings, with the help of the Vegas Golden Knights not showing up to their game against the Anaheim Ducks, managed to solidify their standing of 3rd place in the Pacific Division, giving them, for the third straight year, the Edmonton Oilers as their playoff opponent.
If at the beginning of the year, someone had said the Kings would finish with 99 points, that would’ve sounded pretty good. Third in the Pacific? Not too shabby. Could be better, could also certainly be worse. Yet, somehow 99 points doesn’t feel like that’s good enough anymore. Sure it gets them into the playoffs, but are they truly contenders or simply another first and out team?
The Kings finished with 104 points last year and it still felt like the kinda got a little lucky, which is a little wild because they ended 10th overall and fifth in their conference. Fifth! This year was mildly disappointing as their cold streak hit early in 2024 and the team ended up leaving valuable points on the table. Interestingly, even if they’d won five of their 11 overtime / shootout games this year, they still would’ve finished third based solely on regulation wins since Edmonton had the advantage there. A team this deep and talented on paper should be winning more games, right? Boring HockeyTM gets the job done (usually), but is it enough to win the big shiny trophy which is really the ultimate measure of success? Well, we’re going to find out.
We’ve Been Here Before
The Oilers, with yet another new coach, are a much improved team this season. Part of that is a system that provides overall more team defense and doesn’t rely solely on the goaltender to stop pucks or Connor McDavid to outscore their problems. Per Natural Stat Trick, at 5v5, the Oilers are third overall in corsi-for percentage (CF%), about half a point ahead of the Kings. Their corsi-against per 60 (CA/60) is even better. They’re second with 52.62 CA/60 where the Kings are fifth (54.24 CA/60). Basically, they take a lot of shot attempts and suppress a lot, better than the once corsi Kings (although, to be fair, that title has basically been taken over by the Carolina Hurricanes).
Where the Kings could really get into trouble here is the goals-for per 60. In all situations, the Oilers are at 3.68 — meaning, they score an average of 3-4 goals per game. The Kings are a very middling 17th with 3.06 goals per 60. One point that might be in L.A.’s favor is their 2.53 goals against per 60 compared to Edmonton’s 2.85. The margin is small and leaves little room for error as, fancy stat wise, the two teams are fairly evenly matched.
It seems, then, that the crux of these games will come down to special teams as usual. Per NHL.com, Edmonton finished the season with a pretty hot power play, fourth overall at 26.3% (24.3% net1 — good enough for second). Conversely, Los Angeles’s power play, which had started to cool by the end of the season, was 10th at 19.8% net (12th over the course of the season). The Oilers are also in a three-way tie for third in terms of net power play goals per game with 0.72. The Kings are 12th at 0.60. Basically, Edmonton more likely to score at least one PPG each game whereas it’s almost a coin toss for Los Angeles.
On the penalty kill, the Kings fared a little better. Their overall PK is second and their net PK% is third. The Oilers’ net PK% is 82.2 and 79.5% overall. Over 82 games, L.A. averaged 3.65 penalties per game and Edmonton averaged 3.86 pen taken/60. Once again, these teams are fairly close in certain measurable statistics on paper. But a lot can change inside of six months. Teams go through crazy ups and downs, hot and cold streaks, battle injuries and general randomness. But playoffs are a fresh start; the slate gets wiped clean and everyone starts anew. It will take a whole team effort to win four games in the first round this year.
The Fiala Effect
Last year’s playoffs ended after six games for Los Angeles. It was frustrating and heartbreaking after the previous year’s surprise entry into the postseason went seven games. The addition of Kevin Fiala was supposed to help the Kings lineup better against the Oilers. And it did — kind of.
In 2022, two of L.A.’s three wins were by a single goal. The third was a 4-0 victory. The team kept Game 7 close-ish but did surrender 41 shots on goal and couldn’t find a way to beat Mike Smith. It was clear the team had run out of gas and simply didn’t have the horses to compete in this track meet. The following year, the games were a lot closer. Only two of the four ended by more than one goal and three of them ended in overtime. Fiala didn’t play the first three games of the playoffs and coincidentally, the team lost the next three games after he returned. But, according to Natural Stat Trick, with him in the lineup, their CF/60 shot up from 53.69 to 65.83 at even strength. This could be the result of small sample sizes, but Fiala brings a presence to the team that can’t be ignored and he’s even better this year than he was last season.
Fiala played all 82 games this season and had a scoreline of 29-44-73. It was a tale of two halves for #22. According to NHL.com, St. Gallen native had 43 points (tied for first with Adrian Kempe) between Oct. 10, 2023 and Jan. 31, 2024 but had also been called for 24 penalties in 48 games. In the 34 games following the All-Star Break, Fiala only took seven penalties and scored 30 points. Prior to the break, the team’s power play was a middling 17th and rose to 12th in the second half with Fiala scoring 4 and 7 goals before and after.
Keys to Success
- Speeds Kills
- The Oilers have a lot of fast players. The Kings will need to be at their very best on the neutral zone forecheck to slow them down and keep them to the edges.
- Special Teams
- The penalty kill has been a staple of L.A.’s game for the last several seasons, but Edmonton has a lot of highly skilled players who can put the puck in the back of the net if you give them enough chances. Kempe, Fiala, and PL Dubois are the team’s biggest offenders and will need to do their best to stay out of the box.
- When the power play is clicking, all five players on the ice are doing something productive — moving the puck, getting into or opening up shooting lanes, blocking out opponents, etc.– giving it a near tic-tac-toe effect.
- Boring HockeyTM
- The 1-3-1 isn’t the most exciting system to watch, but the smothering effect it has can work really well when players act in concert with each other. A killer forecheck is always necessary to win games, but it’s especially crucial for very fast teams like Edmonton.
- 5-Man Unit
- Jim Fox preaches this on every broadcast and he’s absolutely correct. The only way for the Kings to win this series is by working together. One alarming thing that was noticeable in the last few games of the season was how disconnected everyone looked. “Too many passengers,” as Darryl Sutter used to say. That often left a few guys trying to do everything on their own without realizing that they have a teammate standing right next to them.
- Goaltending
- Cam Talbot has a career save percentage of .914. His counterpart at the other end of the ice, Stuart Skinner, has a .910 save percentage. Talbot started off hot but seriously cooled off in January and never really got back to where he was in October. He’ll need to reach deep into whatever made him a .930 goaltender and sent him to Toronto if the team is to have success.
Expectations are riding high for the Kings, both internally and from fans. It may only be their third year in the postseason, but the city of Los Angeles is hungry for another championship and all hopes are riding on the hockey team (and the Dodgers but people are a bit more skeptical about that one). While winning the Stanley Cup would probably be considered a bonus considering where they came from just three years ago, there’s hope and anticipation that the Kings will go deep.
Schedule
First Round series schedule (subject to change):
Game 1: At Edmonton, 4/22 at Rogers Place, beginning at 7 p.m. (PT)
Game 2: At Edmonton, 4/24 at Rogers Place, beginning at 7 p.m. (PT)
Game 3: In Los Angeles, 4/26 at Crypto.com Arena, beginning at 7:30 p.m. (PT)
Game 4: In Los Angeles, 4/28 at Crypto.com Arena, beginning at 7:30 p.m. (PT)
- Game 5: At Edmonton, 5/1 at Rogers Place, start time TBD (if necessary)
- Game 6: In Los Angeles, 5/3 at Crypto.com Arena, start time TBD (if necessary)
- Game 7: At Edmonton, 5/5 at Rogers Place, start time TBD (if necessary)
First Round series broadcast schedule (subject to change):
Game 1: 4/22 – ESPN2, Bally Sports SoCal, LA Kings iHeartRadio, SN, CBC, TVAS
Game 2: 4/24 – TBS, Bally Sports West, LA Kings iHeartRadio, SN, CBC, TVAS, MAX
Game 3: 4/26 – TBS, Bally Sports West, LA Kings iHeartRadio, MAX, SN, TVAS
Game 4: 4/28 – TBS, Bally Sports West, LA Kings iHeartRadio, truTV, MAX, SN, SN1, TVAS
- Game 5: 5/1 – TBD
- Game 6: 5/3 – TBD
- Game 7: 5/5 – TBD
Footnotes
- Net PP% is a team’s power play goals for (PP GF) minus its shorthanded goals against (SH GA) divided by its power play opportunities (PP Opp). 100% means that every power play opportunity was successful and that no shorthanded goals were scored against. It is possible for Net PP% to be negative if the team scores less power play goals than the shorthanded goals against that it allows. ↩︎