On the surface, things look grim for the Los Angeles Kings after losing their eighth game in a row, this time to the Detroit Red Wings. And Tweets like this don’t help the impending sense of doom sweeping through the fanbase.
So what gives? This supremely talented roster that managed 10 road wins in a row, some in fairly difficult buildings, are suddenly struggling — both at home and away. Let’s go back to December 10, 2023 (a 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers), which was a sign of things to come. In the last four weeks, they’ve played three back-to-back games, which are often written off as schedule losses (tired team, travel is involved, etc). But the other five defeats? Those are a different story. Of those five games, they lost four times in overtime or shootouts and in at least two matches, the Kings led by one or more goals. It’s a moot point talking about “ifs”, yet if they had managed to maintain their leads, this would be an entirely different conversation — still a mildly concerning one, but one that feels slightly less daunting. Not all is lost, though. There is still reason to be optimistic they’ll turn it around soon.
Corsi Kings
Since December, the Kings have been the very best team in the NHL at generating shots with 69.39/60 Corsi-For (reminder: Corsi measures shot attempt differential at even strength). Defensively, they haven’t been as solid but are still a respectable ninth-best with 55.17/60 Corsi-Against. Corsi is usually a pretty good indicator of what’s happening on the ice. Is the team generating a lot of shots, are those shots getting through, are they allowing a lot of attempts against, etc. Fenwick measures all unblocked shot attempts. Unsurprisingly, they’re the very best with 50.26/60 while their fenwick-against is a decent 38.82/60.
By all accounts, it seems their even strength play is pretty good. They not only generate a lot of shots-for, but they’re not all being blocked. They are, once again, the best at creating shots-for with a league-leading 34.65/60 and a third-best 26.24/60 shots allowed. That is to say: their defense is not the problem.
Where things get a little sticky for Los Angeles is their scoring chances-for with 29.1/60, good enough for 12th. That’s a bit average for a team that boasts Anze Kopitar, PL Dubois, and Adrian Kempe among others. With a perfectly average 26.15/60 scoring chances allowed, it’s still a little puzzling as to what’s causing this lengthy losing streak. Surely by now they would’ve won a few games, even being as median as they are.
This is all at 5v5. What about their power play? It’s gone through some serious droughts lately. Surely that’s a sore spot for L.A.? Actually no. Per NHL.com, their 21.7% is tied for 14th overall. Their penalty kill is stellar at 86.6%, just 0.2% behind the Philadelphia Flyers (note: These numbers are for the season overall, not just since December). As infuriating as the power play can be to watch, special teams have not been the cause of them being winless so far in 2024.
High Danger, Low Save
What it comes down to is their goaltending. Both Cam Talbot and Dave Rittich are struggling with high danger shots.
The Kings are ninth best in the NHL in allowing the least amount of high danger chances against with 10.38/60. That, along with the team’s ability to get their shots through (on most nights), means they should be winning. The team’s 1.47/60 high danger goals allowed is eighth worst overall, behind the Detroit Red Wings (worst overall), Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, and Chicago Blackhawks to name a few (all teams they have lost to twice, sans Chicago, whom they have yet to play). Their high danger save percent is a paltry 77.78%, fifth worst in the NHL.
Talbot has a career save percentage (sv%) of .914 and Rittich’s career average is .905. Talbot’s sv% would be fine if the Kings were a team capable of scoring their way out of league average goaltending. (On the surface, Rittich’s sv% could be tough to overcome as it is below league average, but individual games are a bit strange, as evidenced by this losing streak). Such as it stands, they’re simply not built that way nor does head coach Todd McLellan’s system allow for it. Talbot’s .930s sv% that earned him a well deserved trip to Toronto was going to come down at some point and that point is now.
Shooooot!
There’s a second problem at hand here, which is at that while their goaltending has regressed, so has their shooting percentage (shots that became goals, expressed as sh%). From October 10 through December 9, the Kings’ 5v5 sh% was a healthy 9.66%, good enough for sixth in the league. Between December 10 and January 13, 2024, their 5v5 sh% has plummeted to a league-worst 5.19%.* Even the last place San Jose Sharks have managed to score more goals with a second-worst 6.43% sh%.
Between October and early December, the Kings were scoring a league-best 3.28 goals per 60 and allowing only 2.12 goals per 60 minutes played. Since December 10, they’ve managed 1.8 goals/60 and allowed 2.45 goals/60. Team scoring went down, opponents’ goals against went up.
All Hope is Not Lost
A major progression to the mean (1.00) is in order. Their PDO, which is oft considered a measure of luck, is a rather dismal 0.958 and is only .005 ahead of the Blackhawks. There are 16 teams that have better PDO than L.A. so it’s only a question of when the progression will happen.
At some point, things will course correct themselves. From December 23, 2013, to February 3, 2014, the Kings were 5-14-2 and clinging to a playoff spot. Robyn Regher, aka BIG RIG, scored a goal in overtime versus the Columbus Blue Jackets, kickstarting a hot streak and propelling the team safely into a playoff spot. Now, it’s up to Andreas Englund to save the Kings.
There’s no guarantee that history will repeat itself this spring, but there’s reason to be optimistic about at least making a postseason appearance. In the meantime, fans will need to just hold on and white knuckle their way through these trying times.