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Off-Day Watch 2/20: So you’re saying there’s a chance, 0.4% edition

Posted on by Sarah Avampato

Statistical models show all sorts of different odds for the Kings going on a—let’s face it—miraculous run and make it into the playoffs. With these models being adjusted on a daily basis, the Kings’ chances have fluctuated big time in response to what they’re doing on the ice, and, of course, in response to what the rest of the West is doing.

The St. Louis Blues, at one point at the bottom of the conference with the Kings, have gone on a tear since recalling seemingly forgotten goalie prospect Jordan Binnington. They’ve won 11 straight and are not only out of the bottom-of-the-league shame hole, but have laid claim to the number three spot in the Central. The Chicago Blackhawks are finding ways to win games, despite what every advanced statistic says, and are just one point back from the second wild card spot in the West. (They’re tied with three other teams right now.)

The Ducks have won two in a row and aren’t quite ready to capitulate for the sake of the tank quite yet. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Wild’s GM is talking about crying himself to sleep, the previously formidable Colorado Avalanche have won just two of their last 10, and Edmonton is … well, Edmonton.

While teams like San Jose, Nashville, and Calgary are all safe in their playoff ambitions, much of the West is truly up for grabs. So where does this leave the Kings? Well, it depends on which statistical model you use.

Analyst Micah Blake McCurdy gives the Kings a 2% chance of making the playoffs, down from 7% during that brief but entertaining winning streak out on the east coast.

Moneypuck gives the Kings a 1.47% chance of making the playoffs—and a 10.8% chance of winning the draft lottery. (That puts them second, behind Ottawa-which-is-really-Colorado.)

Perhaps the bleakest—if you’re in the “but the playoffs would be fun” camp—projection of them all comes from The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, who gives the Kings a … wait for it … 0.4% chance of making the playoffs.

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Technically, yes. But maybe don’t go getting your hopes up for that miracle.

Kings Things

For some Past Kings trivia, here’s the story of Craig Conroy’s 2007 trade from the Kings to the Flames. [The Athletic]

With the trade deadline right around the corner, Kings players are often named as possible trade targets. Here’s the case for Ilya Kovalchuk to the Islanders. [The Athletic]

The Ontario Reign, running low on defenseman after Matt Roy’s recall to the NHL, signed Cliff Watson to a PTO. [Reign Insider]

Elsewhere

Washington Capitals players, including former King Nic Dowd, speak about supporting the growth of women’s hockey. [Russian Machine Never Breaks]

The Buffalo Sabres power play isn’t as bad as people think it is. [Die By The Blade]

Not entirely hockey-related, but many sports journalists make the jump to reporting on national news. Turns out sportswriting prepares you pretty well for the chaos of national and international politics. [Washington City Paper]

Sisters Greta and Sophie Skarzynski didn’t think they’d ever get to play against each other in college. This year’s schedule changed that. [The Gopher Hockey Blog]

A little over six months after his accidental death, a look at what really happened to Ray Emery. [The Athletic]

R. Renee Hess, creator of the Black Girl Hockey Club, speaks about why her group is needed in the hockey community. [PuckerUp Sports]

The Ducks will eventually need a real coach. Who’s it going to be? [Anaheim Calling]

Ann Sophie Bettez and Jamie Lee Rattray got the chance to show they have what it takes to hang with Team Canada during the rivalry series. Was it enough? [The Ice Garden]

Jake Guentzel is more than just a guy who plays next to Sidney Crosby. [PensBurgh]

Yes, yes, we all could have had Nikita Kucherov. [Raw Charge]

A day in the life of Tera Black, the COO of the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers, and the only female COO in minor hockey. [Charlotte Agenda]

Look who’s back on the ice:

Your Semi-Regular Check-In On Justin Williams

Evening Entertainment

You’ve probably had all the Boston Bruins you can take by now, but their tilt against the Vegas Golden Knights tonight should be one to watch. The game airs at 7:00 pm Pacific on NBCSN.

Talking Points