The LA Kings’ March to the Playoffs

December brought with it its usual slate of chilly challenges and the team often struggled to rise to the occasion. With 20 games left, can they do it?

February was frosty to the Los Angeles Kings with Adrian Kempe, Mikey Anderson, Viktor Arvidsson, and Carl Grundström all going down with injuries. There was some good news: Arvidsson and Lizotte both returned to the lineup, though Arvidsson also got hurt again. But on top of losing three wingers, the team also suffered from their usual poor shooting luck and below average goaltending, leading to head coach Todd McLellan’s dismissal.

Spring usually brings with it happier news as the team’s shooting percentage awakes from hibernation and their general poor luck starts to turn around. In really good news, with 20 games left to play, they’ve managed to claw their way into third place (with the help of the Vegas Golden Knights having a downturn). They also have a fairly soft schedule coming up. It’s not exactly a cake-walk, but it isn’t exactly running the gauntlet either.

The Road Ahead

Here’s a quick rundown of their opponents in March and April:

As of March 9, the New York Islanders are two points out of a playoff spot with two games in hand on Tampa and could pose an issue for the Kings. However, with no serious moves at the deadline, General Manager Lou Lamoriello didn’t appear intent on pushing his team towards the postseason. The concerning slash slightly interesting games are the inter-division ones. Depending on how the next few weeks go, there could be a repeat of 2015 when the Calgary Flames played heartbreaker, causing them to miss the postseason by one point.

In other, good news: the team only has three more sets of back-to-back games. One is on the road (Chicago and Dallas March 15 & 16); one is at home (Chicago and Minnesota March 19 & 20); and one is home (Seattle) then road (San Jose) April 3 & 4. Additionally, the Kings have only eight more road games. With last change and (relatively) soft competition, that gives them an excellent chance to pick up enough points.

Their home / road split leaves a lot to be desired but the more important thing at this point in the season is how they’ve been playing lately. In their last 10 games, the Kings are 6-3-1 and have 75 points. If 100 points is the benchmark for the postseason, they will need to secure 25 points, or about 63%, to be guaranteed a spot in the dance.

On the other hand, points in the mid-90s might be enough to just squeak in. The top team in every division has 90 (Florida Panthers), 89 (Vancouver Canucks), 87 (Dallas Stars) and 84 (New York Rangers) points. Those teams have played 64, 65, and 62 games respectively. The (current) third place Metropolitan division Philadelphia Flyers have 74 points in 64 games played. Assuming they get the same 60% share of available points, that puts them at 94. Last year’s Islanders finished with 95 points and the spread was much wider across the board (only four teams ended with fewer than 100 points).

But back to the Kings. If 95 points is enough, then going .500 should do the trick. However, nothing is ever guaranteed so best to try and get as many wins as possible.

What Will It Take?

That is a loaded question. There’s a cliche that in order to know where you’re going, you have to know where you’ve been. Let’s start with who’s missing from the lineup.

Pheonix Copley – He was starting to really find his game before an unfortunate ACL injury ended his season. In his absence, even more of the workload fell on Cam Talbot who struggled a little. In his stead, David Rittich has performed well enough but has also had some games that seemed worrisome.

Carl Grundström – Although not known for his high-scoring abilities, the Swede brings a wealth of intangibles to the team. His hard, heavy shot is a noteworthy asset, contributing to the team’s success. Expected to net around 8-10 goals per season, it’s his role in easing the pressure on the top lines that truly makes him invaluable. He fits seamlessly into his bottom-six position and is a reliable defensive player. He ranks 10th among his teammates in shutting down scoring chances, a trait that’s desperately needed in the Kings’ bottom-six.

Viktor Arvidsson – What can be said about Arvy? He’s had a run of bad luck, unable to stay healthy for an entire season over the course his career. But he’s still incredibly valuable when he is in the lineup. Last year, he was first in individual chances-for; in individual high danger chances-for, he was eighth; in shots, he was second; he was tied for first with Grundström in rush attempts. No matter how you slice it, Arvidsson’s ability to generate offense is unparalleled and badly needed for a team that’s prone to stretches of poor shooting percentages.

Mikey Anderson – If you’re noticing Mikey on the ice, he’s probably doing something wrong. Anderson is the type of player who seems to largely fly under the radar. He’s a quiet producer, having scored only four goals and registered 13 total assists last year. But he seems to have found a great niche spot playing with Drew Droughty where both are able to contribute offensively and still manage to excel in their roles as defensemen. While Brandt Clarke may one day be a suitable top-four defenseman, the coaching staff are wisely reluctant to rush him into tough situations. In the meantime, Anderson’s skates are tough to fill for Jacob Moverare and Jordan Spence.

Outside of Copley, each player is week-to-week and could potentially return to the lineup this season. Rumor had it that General Manager Rob Blake initially looked to fill Kempe’s slot in the lineup, but ended up with a quiet deadline after all.

Deadline Day ’24: Analyzing Los Angeles’ Moves

The Puck Stops Here

At the beginning of the season, there was speculation that Blake would be busy at the trade deadline looking for a goalie. But with Rittich playing decently well enough, Talbot back on the up-and-up, and a lousy trade market for keepers, the Kings stood pat.

Cam Talbot’s career save percentage of .914 is actually better than the league average of .906 over the last six seasons (including this one) and his current .918 sv% is in keeping with his most recent years (outside of a stint with the Ottawa Senators last year, who were not very good). In January, Talbot had his roughest stretch of games in a Kings uniform to date. From the 7th through the 24th, he allowed 4, 3, 3, 5, 5, and 5 goals against. His four games in February have been much better, allowing only one goal against in three of four games, with the only blemish being the team’s back-to-back in Calgary. Todd McLellan leaned heavily on Talbot, which may have contributed to his struggles in net and potentially also contributed to the former coach’s dismissal. New bench boss Jim Hiller has taken a different approach, instead choosing to have David Rittich split time with Talbot.

Rittich was recalled from Ontario in December after Copley injured himself in practice, has started 16 games and played in 18. His woes are unfortunately not much better than Talbot’s during the Kings’ recent poor stretch of play. In his worst games, Rittich allowed 3, 4, 4, and 4 goals against. His current .909 sv% is also in line with career .905 sv%.

But here’s why there’s little concern about the goaltending. Talbot is 5th best in high danger goals against average (HDAA) and 12th in goals against average (GAA) at all strengths while Rittich is 6th in GAA and 18th in HDGAA. It’s easy to nitpick specific games but overall, the netminding doesn’t seem to be as big of a question mark as it did in October. There are still some questions as to whether Talbot is up to the challenge of a grueling playoff schedule. But if the Kings give him some run support and he can maintain his career average save percentage (two big IFs), there’s little reason to doubt him.

Size vs. Structure

Elliotte Friedman brought up this point on a recent 32 Thoughts podcast. The Kings play with a great structure. They just don’t have the size to enforce it. They have tall guys, big bodies (such as Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kevin Fiala) but an injured Grundström really does hurt the bottom six’s ability to enforce the system. In theory, if they were going to do anything at the deadline, it would’ve been a Hail Mary for Blake to keep his job. Any deals likely would’ve included giving away skilled players for big bottom-six players (similar to Dwight King and Jordan Nolan in 2012. And yes, they were called up but also played a crucial role in that team turning things around). Ultimately, Kempe progressed more quickly than originally anticipated but their bottom-six still has a hole in it.

General (Mis)Management

Rob Blake hitched his wagon to the wrong players in Fiala and Dubois. Having just one of those guys is fine but having both of them creates a tough situation in the room. After Doughty got mad they missed the playoffs a few years back, Blake started making trades and signings based on potential playoff matchups. Phillip Danault (still a great signing) was brought in to neutralize Mark Stone should the Kings face Vegas in the playoffs; Fiala was brought in to frustrate a potential Avalanche matchup; Dubois was brought in to help with center size and depth against Edmonton following disappointment at their Alberta rival’s hands two years running.

His most recent moves seem like he’s been trying to plug potential holes instead of creating a roster with a clear identity, unlike his predecessor who leaned too heavily on team vibes. He has also hamstrung himself with the salary cap. This may be his last shot at getting this team deep into the playoffs. If it doesn’t work out and he’s fired, the cap crunch is the next guy’s problem.

Good Vibes Only

DJ Smith was hired as an assistant because he is Mr. Good Vibes, a la John Stevens. He’s probably not adding much in terms of system or X’s and O’s. Hiller was an assistant with Smith in Toronto and did a good job smoothing things over when Mike Babcock was trying to toughen up Mitch Marner and the other young guys. Smith’s job is to try to get all the guys happy and tolerating each other again. It’s hard to do late in a season but winning cures all ills. Hopefully they can keep it up.

Fancy Stats

Here’s the quick and dirty: the Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. They play well with structure, get lots of unblocked shots through, and are excellent at suppressing shots against. By all accounts, they should be winning lots of games. But, as we all know, hockey isn’t played on paper and the team has had some serious lapses across the board. Their victory against the Devils was one of their best, most complete matches to date. They’ll need to keep that up not only to get into the playoffs but to have success in the postseason, especially, if as the March standings indicate (although take note that things change almost daily), Edmonton will be their first round opponent yet again.

What’s Next?

Now that the trade deadline has passed, this time of year has become slightly less contentious. Or perhaps, that contentiousness has merely shifted away from the unknown of where a player may end up to the excitement of trying to make the postseason (at least for those whose teams have not already been eliminated). Hockey fans are thrilled that every game has so much meaning attached to it. Every win or loss seems to send the standings into a wild tug-o-war.

For the Kings, who chose not to alter their roster, it’ll be about focusing their game on consistency and just trying to get two points. They’re an excellent defensive team and they’ll need to really lock that in to keep pucks out of their net and their goals-against down. Talbot and Rittich can only do so much. Either one may be able to steal an occasional game for the Kings, but both netminders will need all the help they can get.